Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 </li>
<li>Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years</li>
<li>If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.</li>
</ul>


WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 
Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years
If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.


WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.</p>

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

Equity Capital Markets

GLOBALFOUNDRIES  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>GlobalFoundries aims to list at a market cap close to $25bn, raising about $1.6bn in new capital in the process. The presence of strong cornerstone investor support is a positive here but does this offset the weak financials?</p>

GlobalFoundries aims to list at a market cap close to $25bn, raising about $1.6bn in new capital in the process. The presence of strong cornerstone investor support is a positive here but does this offset the weak financials?

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/parade-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6987:1" rel="noopener">Parade Technologies (4966 TT)</a> is a fabless semiconductor that specialises in high-speed video interfacing and processing products, and expected to see large passive inflows from an MSCI rebalance (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-nov-2021-index-rebalance-preview-go" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59067" rel="noopener">MSCI Nov 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Go!</a>).</p></div><p>The review period for price cut-off started on 18 October 2021 and will run to 29 October 2021. MSCI is expected to announce the results of the review on 12 November 2021, with changes implemented after the close of trading on 30 November 2021. </p><p>In this Insight, we provide a primer on Parade Technologies including an analysis in respect of where in the value chain it sits, in particular as a key display supplier to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a>, potential investment catalysts, and valuation. </p>

Parade Technologies (4966 TT) is a fabless semiconductor that specialises in high-speed video interfacing and processing products, and expected to see large passive inflows from an MSCI rebalance (MSCI Nov 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Go!).The review period for price cut-off started on 18 October 2021 and will run to 29 October 2021. MSCI is expected to announce the results of the review on 12 November 2021, with changes implemented after the close of trading on 30 November 2021. In this Insight, we provide a primer on Parade Technologies including an analysis in respect of where in the value chain it sits, in particular as a key display supplier to Apple Inc (AAPL US), potential investment catalysts, and valuation. 

Parade Technologies (4966 TT) - Expensive Now, But Accumulate on Weakness Given Structural Positives

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago, and think there is alot to like here. The proposed $25-30B valuation does seem a bit high given TSMC trades at 13x forward EBITDA and this would be closer to 20x. Maybe they should see if Intel is still interested...</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago, and think there is alot to like here. The proposed $25-30B valuation does seem a bit high given TSMC trades at 13x forward EBITDA and this would be closer to 20x. Maybe they should see if Intel is still interested...Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Global Foundries: Some Thoughts on the IPO

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

The semiconductor market is on a tear, and WSTS forecasts that next year will see solid growth. This Insight examines the likelihood that 2022...

Jim Handy

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins despite elevated valuations and...

Mio Kato

GlobalFoundries IPO - Valuation

GlobalFoundries aims to list at a market cap close to $25bn and the presence of strong cornerstone investor support is a positive here but does...

Mio Kato

Parade Technologies (4966 TT) - Expensive Now, But Accumulate on Weakness Given Structural Positives

We provide a primer on Parade Technologies including an analysis in respect of where in the value chain it sits, in particular as a key display...

Jason Yap, CFA

Global Foundries: Some Thoughts on the IPO

We offer some thoughts on Global Foundries coming IPO. We admire the strategic pivot the company took two years ago. Valuation seems high though,...

Aaron Gabin

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