Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The July 4 upward revision to FY Nov-22 sales and profit guidance appears to have been discounted, but the company's long-term growth potential has not.</li>
<li>Sales could more than double over the next several years as Nextage takes share in Japan's highly fragmented and consolidating used car market. Margins also have room to expand.</li>
<li>Prospective P/E ratio headed down from 18x this fiscal year to 12x and below on a medium-term view. </li>
</ul>


The July 4 upward revision to FY Nov-22 sales and profit guidance appears to have been discounted, but the company's long-term growth potential has not.
Sales could more than double over the next several years as Nextage takes share in Japan's highly fragmented and consolidating used car market. Margins also have room to expand.
Prospective P/E ratio headed down from 18x this fiscal year to 12x and below on a medium-term view. 


Nextage (3186 JP): Long-Term Potential Not Yet Discounted

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/407/original/2019-03-09_14-25-50.png?1552109168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81407"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
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JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-2018-q3-cash-flow-stakes-runners-riders-red-flags" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26816">Insight</a> with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -
<ul>
<li>Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 
<ul>
<li>Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Financing Cash Flow</li>
<li>Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) </li>
</ul>
     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">I</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">DOM (7599 JP)</a>



Source: Japan Analytics

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -

Operating Cash Flow

Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 

Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)


Financing Cash Flow
Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) 

     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. Softbank Group (9984 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Pan Pacific International (7532 JP),  Lawson (2651 JP), and IDOM (7599 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

Director, Pearl Hill Advisors

Nicholas Tanner

Director

Pearl Hill Advisors

These shares have been a dreadful performer this year. They have fallen 55% from their mid-January high and now trade at 1x book and yield 2.7%. They are on 11x 2/19 official earnings. But the forecast will not be met. The company had a dreadful first quarter but did not revise down for the full year. The reason given was that it was too soon and the outlook remains unclear. In any case it is clear to us; the operating profit forecast of Y7.6bn (+12%) will not be met. We suspect a figure in the…

These shares have been a dreadful performer this year. They have fallen 55% from their mid-January high and now trade at 1x book and yield 2.7%. They are on 11x 2/19 official earnings. But the forecast will not be met. The company had a dreadful first quarter but did not revise down for the full year. The reason given was that it was too soon and the outlook remains unclear. In any case it is clear to us; the operating profit forecast of Y7.6bn (+12%) will not be met. We suspect a figure in the…

Idom (7599) Shares Very Oversold but a Downward Revision Still to Come. A Trade After That.

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared the average Target Price given by each group for companies with 2 or more Analysts with coverage.<h2>Japanese Bullish Side....</h2>We then screened for names with greater than 20% (absolute) difference in upside from the current target price. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> tops the list with a 44% difference in upside from the current price. Japanese brokers are…

We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared the average Target Price given by each group for companies with 2 or more Analysts with coverage.Japanese Bullish Side....We then screened for names with greater than 20% (absolute) difference in upside from the current target price. Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) tops the list with a 44% difference in upside from the current price. Japanese brokers are…

Which Names Are the Japanese Brokers More Bullish / Bearish On....

1Q sales rose 8% to Y71.1bn whilst operating profits remained flat at Y1.2bn. This compares with the first half sales and operating profit forecast of Y127.2bn (+2%) and Y2.1bn (-3%). The full year forecast remains unchanged at Y259.5bn (+3%) and Y5.5bn (+20%). Overall management say 1Q results were a bit better than expectations. The market, however, was clearly hoping for more. The shares fell 13% yesterday and are struggling today. We would, however, buy into this weakness. The main points…

1Q sales rose 8% to Y71.1bn whilst operating profits remained flat at Y1.2bn. This compares with the first half sales and operating profit forecast of Y127.2bn (+2%) and Y2.1bn (-3%). The full year forecast remains unchanged at Y259.5bn (+3%) and Y5.5bn (+20%). Overall management say 1Q results were a bit better than expectations. The market, however, was clearly hoping for more. The shares fell 13% yesterday and are struggling today. We would, however, buy into this weakness. The main points…

IDOM (7599) Shares Oversold on 1Q Results - BUY Here

Japan

GULLIVER INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. operates a chain of stores which specialize in purchasing used cars.  The Company also operates a retail store chain known as Dolphie Net, via satellite.  Gulliver operates its own stores and also franchise stores nationwide.

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IDOM Inc (7599 JP)

Nextage (3186 JP): Long-Term Potential Not Yet Discounted

Recent upward revision to guidance discounted, but long-term growth potential yields a single-digit prospective P/E. Taking share in Japan's...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market...

Campbell Gunn

Idom (7599) Shares Very Oversold but a Downward Revision Still to Come. A Trade After That.

These shares have been a dreadful performer this year. They have fallen 55% from their mid-January high and now trade at 1x book and yield 2.7%....

Pearl Hill Advisors

Which Names Are the Japanese Brokers More Bullish / Bearish On....

We isolated the Japanese brokers to see if there was a significant difference between the Japanese broker outlook and Foreign outlook. We compared...

Custom Products Group

IDOM (7599) Shares Oversold on 1Q Results - BUY Here

1Q sales rose 8% to Y71.1bn whilst operating profits remained flat at Y1.2bn. This compares with the first half sales and operating profit forecast...

Pearl Hill Advisors

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