Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-possible-us-2-2bn-placement-will-be-a-huge-deal-to-digest-but-it-s-not-all-bad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-us-2-4bn-placement-larger-than-rumored-some-indications-of-finality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see here and here.
In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>The deal was undoubtedly accelerated by Reuters breaking the news of a possible equity raising on 15th May 2023.</li>
<li>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
The deal was undoubtedly accelerated by Reuters breaking the news of a possible equity raising on 15th May 2023.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Larger than Rumored, Some Indications of Finality

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). </li>
<li>The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. </li>
<li>My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.</li>
</ul>


This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). 
The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. 
My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener">ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11405:1" rel="noopener">Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY1,980 per share, a 54.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 16.61% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive. </li>
</ul>



ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP) has recommended Marubeni Corp (8002 JP) and Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,980 per share, a 54.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 16.61% ownership ratio.
The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive. 


Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note. and...

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Larger than Rumored, Some Indications of Finality

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the deal structure and the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM

The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate....

Arun George

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