Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was out this morning with its belated take on JIP securing financing. </li>
<li>The article was nevertheless rather negative in its tone causing Toshiba to drop as much as 3.6% before recovering most of those losses. </li>
<li>We aren’t entirely sure it should have but Toshiba Tec does pique our interest.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was out this morning with its belated take on JIP securing financing. 
The article was nevertheless rather negative in its tone causing Toshiba to drop as much as 3.6% before recovering most of those losses. 
We aren’t entirely sure it should have but Toshiba Tec does pique our interest.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>As mentioned yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-6502-funding-definitely-probably-now-secured-next-steps-and-risks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and more clearly by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-good-news" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95267" rel="noopener">Toshiba – Good News?</a></em>, the Nikkei was strangely silent over the fact that loan details were agreed. </li>
<li>The Nikkei comes out with a surprise <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC038JT0T00C23A2000000/?n_cid=SNSTW001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> this morning saying they hear the Commitment Letter has been handed over. It also says the "Final Bid" is "about ¥2trln."</li>
<li>Toshiba shares quickly reacted badly quickly. The article deserves parsing and I try to clarify the arguments.</li>
</ul>


As mentioned yesterday here and more clearly by Mio Kato in Toshiba – Good News?, the Nikkei was strangely silent over the fact that loan details were agreed. 
The Nikkei comes out with a surprise article this morning saying they hear the Commitment Letter has been handed over. It also says the "Final Bid" is "about ¥2trln."
Toshiba shares quickly reacted badly quickly. The article deserves parsing and I try to clarify the arguments.


<ul>
<li>So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. </li>
<li>The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. </li>
<li>In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.</li>
</ul>


So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. 
The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. 
In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!
DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..


Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.</li>
<li>Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.</li>
<li>That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.
Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.
That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – The Nikkei Finally Speaks

We consider the Nikkei article on JIP's likely Toshiba valuation to be relatively negative and believe that a ¥2trn valuation may be more a maximum...

Mio Kato

Toshiba (6502) - Whoop! There It Is!

Toshiba (6502) saw "Funds Secured" but the Nikkei was curiously silent for 36hrs. Now they come with the zinger that the price could be "about...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Good News?

We question whether JIP securing funding commitments from banks is truly the end of the drama for Toshiba as there are a few curiosities...

Mio Kato

Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

NKY indicated flate; Inbound headwinds as China exludes Japan from Group tours; Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

Multiple articles indicate Banks and JIP have agreed on terms so Banks can issue a Funding Commitment Letter for JIP's takeover proposal of...

Travis Lundy

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