Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

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<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
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<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
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<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. </p>
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<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. </p>
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<p>Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.</p>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. 


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. 


Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. 




Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.









For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index (HSAHP) measures the absolute price premium or discount of A-shares over H-shares for the largest and most liquid mainland China companies with both A-share and H-share listings.</p><p>The HSAHP Index has fluctuated a lot over the last 10 years, reaching a high of 149.03 (A-shares trading at a 49% premium to H-shares) in July 2015 and a low of 88.97 (A-shares trading at a discount of 11% to H-shares) in July 2014.</p><p>With retail investors rushing in to equities in China and pushing stocks higher in the mainland versus their Hong Kong line, a correction in markets could see the AH premium revert by around 10% as investors head for the exit. Insurance stocks and brokerages are trading at high AH premiums and near the top of the 5 year range.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at how the HSAHP index has moved over time and identify trading opportunities where the premium is trading near the high and low end of its historical ranges.</p>

The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index (HSAHP) measures the absolute price premium or discount of A-shares over H-shares for the largest and most liquid mainland China companies with both A-share and H-share listings.The HSAHP Index has fluctuated a lot over the last 10 years, reaching a high of 149.03 (A-shares trading at a 49% premium to H-shares) in July 2015 and a low of 88.97 (A-shares trading at a discount of 11% to H-shares) in July 2014.With retail investors rushing in to equities in China and pushing stocks higher in the mainland versus their Hong Kong line, a correction in markets could see the AH premium revert by around 10% as investors head for the exit. Insurance stocks and brokerages are trading at high AH premiums and near the top of the 5 year range.In this Insight, we look at how the HSAHP index has moved over time and identify trading opportunities where the premium is trading near the high and low end of its historical ranges.

China AH Premium: Trade Ideas As We Near Previous Highs

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25621:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Mining (EDV CN)</a> made a hostile bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centamin-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21870:1" rel="noopener">Centamin PLC (CEY LN)</a> in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of Endeavour for every share of CEY or 126.27 GBp/share is a 13% premium to Centamin’s last close price of 112.20 GBp/share. Centamin’s board has rejected tender as it was not offering enough value to its shareholders. </p><p>We believe that EDV’s offer for CEY is opportunistic and the shareholders of CEY should wait for better terms as the present offer is just a 5% premium on the last 3 months' average price.  CEY is trading at 4.6x FY20 EBITDA, 1.5x book and below its peers on EV/oz of gold resources.</p>

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) made a hostile bid for Centamin PLC (CEY LN) in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of Endeavour for every share of CEY or 126.27 GBp/share is a 13% premium to Centamin’s last close price of 112.20 GBp/share. Centamin’s board has rejected tender as it was not offering enough value to its shareholders. We believe that EDV’s offer for CEY is opportunistic and the shareholders of CEY should wait for better terms as the present offer is just a 5% premium on the last 3 months' average price.  CEY is trading at 4.6x FY20 EBITDA, 1.5x book and below its peers on EV/oz of gold resources.

Endeavour Bid for Centamin Gold: An Opportunistic Bid

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> announced the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25820:1" rel="noopener">Continental Gold (CNL CN)</a> in an all-cash offer of C$5.5/share or C$1.4B. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> holds ~20% of Continental Gold has backed the transaction. The board of Continental has recommended the deal to its shareholders.</p><p>We believe that Zijin’s offer for CNL is fair given that CNL has already returned nearly 140% YTD. The company is already trading above its peers on FY20 EBITDA and book value multiples but below on resource-based valuations.</p>

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) announced the acquisition of Continental Gold (CNL CN) in an all-cash offer of C$5.5/share or C$1.4B. Newmont Mining (NEM US) holds ~20% of Continental Gold has backed the transaction. The board of Continental has recommended the deal to its shareholders.We believe that Zijin’s offer for CNL is fair given that CNL has already returned nearly 140% YTD. The company is already trading above its peers on FY20 EBITDA and book value multiples but below on resource-based valuations.

Zijin Mining Acquisition of Continental Gold: Seeking Value Through Acquisition

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong Kong-listed stocks. </p><p>We have been tracking the H/A relationships and the Southbound flows per name on a weekly basis and occasionally writing commentary about it since late 2016. </p><p>This report provides a brief synopsis of the SOUTHBOUND flows into Hong Kong-listed stocks over the course of 2018, by sector, by average percentage change in mainland ownership of HK shares outstanding subject to the Connect mechanisms, and the top and bottom five names per sector per quarter.</p>

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong Kong-listed stocks. We have been tracking the H/A relationships and the Southbound flows per name on a weekly basis and occasionally writing commentary about it since late 2016. This report provides a brief synopsis of the SOUTHBOUND flows into Hong Kong-listed stocks over the course of 2018, by sector, by average percentage change in mainland ownership of HK shares outstanding subject to the Connect mechanisms, and the top and bottom five names per sector per quarter.

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

China AH Premium: Trade Ideas As We Near Previous Highs

The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index (HSAHP) measures the absolute price premium or discount of A-shares over H-shares for the...

Brian Freitas

Endeavour Bid for Centamin Gold: An Opportunistic Bid

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) made a hostile bid for Centamin PLC (CEY LN) in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Zijin Mining Acquisition of Continental Gold: Seeking Value Through Acquisition

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) announced the acquisition of Continental Gold (CNL CN) in an all-cash offer of C$5.5/share or C$1.4B. Newmont...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

2018 HK-Connect SouthBound In a Nutshell

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong...

Travis Lundy

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Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/​A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....

Travis Lundy

China AH Premium: Trade Ideas As We Near Previous Highs

The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index (HSAHP) measures the absolute price premium or discount of A-shares over H-shares for the...

Brian Freitas

Endeavour Bid for Centamin Gold: An Opportunistic Bid

Endeavour Mining (EDV CN) made a hostile bid for Centamin PLC (CEY LN) in an all-stock proposal of £1.47B or US$1.9B. The offer of 0.0846 shares of...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Zijin Mining Acquisition of Continental Gold: Seeking Value Through Acquisition

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) announced the acquisition of Continental Gold (CNL CN) in an all-cash offer of C$5.5/share or C$1.4B. Newmont...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

2018 HK-Connect SouthBound In a Nutshell

Since autumn of 2014, the HK-Shanghai Connect, and later the HK-Shenzhen Connect mechanisms have provided means for mainland investors to buy Hong...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....