Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Luxshare Precision Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.</li>
<li>It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 13.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,769.7 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials, and offset by communication services, real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We note that outflows have been consecutive for four weeks and highlight outflows for CATL (300750 CH).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,769.7 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials, and offset by communication services, real estate, utilities.
We note that outflows have been consecutive for four weeks and highlight outflows for CATL (300750 CH).


Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.4% as of Jul 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care and offset by communication services, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.4% as of Jul 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care and offset by communication services, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>During 2Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +7.1%y/y, down slightly from the +8.7% reported during 1Q2024.</li>
<li>Overall, 61% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and 57% delivered positive Sales surprises, a marked improvement from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 2Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +7.1%y/y, down slightly from the +8.7% reported during 1Q2024.
Overall, 61% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and 57% delivered positive Sales surprises, a marked improvement from the previous quarter.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2024

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.</li>
<li>It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.8bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought utilities and raw materials and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Appliances remain on the sell side.
It is notable that net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly "short gamma", which is to say, sector underperformers are being sold, not bought. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

China

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd acquires, explores and develops properties for gold production. The Company's products also include silver, electrolytic copper and sulphuric acid.

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also known as Chalco, is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.

Inner Mongolian Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd. smelts and processes ferrous metal products.  The Company's products include plates, seamless metal tubes, heavy tubes, square steel, wire rods, steel pipes, steel scraps, and other related products.

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union (600010 CH)

Jiangxi Copper Company Ltd. operates in the copper mining, milling, smelting and refining to produce copper cathode and other related products, including pyrite concentrates, sulphuric acid and electrolytic gold and silver businesses.  The Company also provides smelting and refining services pursuant to tolling arrangements for customers.

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates gold mining and production businesses. The Company provides gold exploration, processing, and outsourcing gold smelting services. Shandong Gold Mining also conducts gold jewelry purification and non-ferrous metal production businesses.

CMOC Group Limited operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company focuses on non-ferrous metal mining. CMOC Group specializes in mining and trading of base and rare metals.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 July 2024): Finance, Consumer, IT Sold, Utilities Bought

NORTHBOUND Flows were quite low this week on a gross basis. On a net basis, they were still a net sell and consumer names and finance names were...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Jul 5th): 4 Weeks of Outflows

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week. We estimate the outflows to be USD1.8bn and highlight flows for CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 5th): China Tourism, Ganfeng Lithium, China East Air, Petrochina

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism,Ganfeng Lithium,China East Air,Petrochina.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024): BIG Consumer Name Selling Again

NORTHBOUND net selling continues. It is dominant in the consumer names. Appliances continue to see weakness. Tech is mixed. Renewables are mixed....

Travis Lundy

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