Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same time, small-caps continue to be one area of the market that gives us some reason for pause as neither the Russell 2000 or S&amp;P Small Cap 600 indexes have been able to make bullish price or RS inflections. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Large- and Small-Cap Casinos &amp; Gaming , Banks, Super-Regional, and Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap.

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same time, small-caps continue to be one area of the market that gives us some reason for pause as neither the Russell 2000 or S&amp;P Small Cap 600 indexes have been able to make bullish price or RS inflections. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Large- and Small-Cap Casinos &amp; Gaming , Banks, Super-Regional, and Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Waiting on Small-Caps

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Wynn shares have been disproportionately hit by a sagging VIP segment exacerbated by the US/China trade dispute. Top players have migrated across borders.</li>
<li>All crucial premium mass segment in Macau will migrate back from cross border play and Wynn will benefit from that movement faster than many peers.</li>
<li>The first step trade deal sends a psychological message that a more comprehensive deal may be in the offing downstream which adds a powerful catalyst to Wynn at it current price.</li>
</ul>


Wynn shares have been disproportionately hit by a sagging VIP segment exacerbated by the US/China trade dispute. Top players have migrated across borders.
All crucial premium mass segment in Macau will migrate back from cross border play and Wynn will benefit from that movement faster than many peers.
The first step trade deal sends a psychological message that a more comprehensive deal may be in the offing downstream which adds a powerful catalyst to Wynn at it current price.


Wynn Resorts Ltd.: US/China First Step Deal Could Move a $10 Spike in the Headline Sensitive Trade

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau.

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau. 

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited / Event-Driven

This week in StubWorld ...
<ul>
<li>Renewed SOE interest focusing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-poly-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3708:1">Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)</a>'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term question mark over its polysilicon/wafer ops.</li>
</ul>
Preceding my comments on GCL, Naspers and other holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

This week in StubWorld ...

Renewed SOE interest focusing on Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term question mark over its polysilicon/wafer ops.

Preceding my comments on GCL, Naspers and other holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

StubWorld: New Interest In GCL's New Energy

United States

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

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Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Waiting on Small-Caps

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same...

Vermilion Research

Wynn Resorts Ltd.: US/China First Step Deal Could Move a $10 Spike in the Headline Sensitive Trade

Wynn shares have been disproportionately hit by a sagging VIP segment exacerbated by the US/China trade dispute. Top players have migrated across...

Howard J Klein

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors: 1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: New Interest In GCL's New Energy

This week in StubWorld ... Renewed SOE interest focusing on Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)'s solar power plants, leaves a near-term...

David Blennerhassett

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