Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is on the brink of yet another significant leap in AI computing with its latest Blackwell GPU, as CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized in an interview with CNBC.</li><li>Describing the demand as "insane," Huang noted that Blackwell is already in full production and on track to be released to data centers for AI applications, with consumer availability slated for 2025.</li><li>The company’s growth, particularly in its Data Center division, has been fueled by AI workloads, driven by GPU computing, networking platforms, and accelerated AI demand.</li></ul>

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is on the brink of yet another significant leap in AI computing with its latest Blackwell GPU, as CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized in an interview with CNBC.Describing the demand as "insane," Huang noted that Blackwell is already in full production and on track to be released to data centers for AI applications, with consumer availability slated for 2025.The company’s growth, particularly in its Data Center division, has been fueled by AI workloads, driven by GPU computing, networking platforms, and accelerated AI demand.

NVIDIA’s "Insane" Blackwell Demand & The New NVLM Model – Can It Redefine AI Computing in 2025?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.</li>
<li>$5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up &gt;5 times YoY</li>
<li>What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA delivered another blockbuster quarter with record revenues of $30 billion, blowing well past the guided $28 billion, up 15% QoQ and up 122% YoY.
$5.6 billion in revenues were attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up &gt;5 times YoY
What the heck is the city state doing with all of those GPUs?


NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.</li><li>Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.</li><li>Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.</li></ul>

It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

NVIDIA’s "Insane" Blackwell Demand & The New NVLM Model – Can It Redefine AI Computing in 2025?

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is on the brink of yet another significant leap in AI computing with its latest Blackwell GPU, as CEO Jensen Huang recently...

Baptista Research

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

NVIDIA's >5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag

NVIDIA reported $5.6 billion in revenues attributed to Singapore, making up more than 18% of overall revenues and up >5 times YoY. What the heck is...

William Keating

Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)

It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings...

Fabricated Knowledge

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