Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period.</li>
<li>Robust demand partially justifies the recent share price increase, but not all the way to a near double-digit revenue multiple.</li>
<li>Just three months ago, I analyzed Broadcom Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVGO) strong business model through the lens of profitability, competitive advantages and capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period.
Robust demand partially justifies the recent share price increase, but not all the way to a near double-digit revenue multiple.
Just three months ago, I analyzed Broadcom Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVGO) strong business model through the lens of profitability, competitive advantages and capital allocation.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.</li>
<li>Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.</li>
<li>Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.
Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.
Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: PMI data points for China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam; Indian GDP growth.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: PMI data points for China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam; Indian GDP growth.

 Companies mentioned:Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)



GEM Weekly (2 Jun 2023): PMI Data Across Asia, South Korea Inflation, India GDP; MediaTek, JD.com

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Broadcom: Proceed With Caution

Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period. Robust demand partially justifies the recent share...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

GEM Weekly (2 Jun 2023): PMI Data Across Asia, South Korea Inflation, India GDP; MediaTek, JD.com

he Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)