Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.</li>
<li>That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.</li>
<li>The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.</li>
<li>Alibaba is…</li>
</ul>


The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.
That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.
The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.
Alibaba is…


Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…</p>

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

Founder, Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

Susan Finder

Founder

Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

<p>A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjA3NDc5MA==&amp;mid=2654696679&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=de31519c793d3104b951aff8f5533d8a&amp;chksm=bd2110ae8a5699b82257b31d4423e80eb779f5de31303016012381e999a9c774bac4eaa2d167&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=5&amp;srcid=0123rxQfyxxt74qmE8hHGXcm#rd" target="_blank">status report</a> on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.</p><h2>What is special about Zhejiang?</h2><p>Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in <a href="http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Facts-and-Figures/Zhejiang-Market-Profile/ff/en/1/1X000000/1X06BVYH.htm" target="_blank">2015</a>.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…</p>

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.What is special about Zhejiang?Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in 2015.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.</li><li>Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. </li><li>We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.</li><li>In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.</li></ul>

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center shortly.Our base case scenario is the middle ground between full-blown trade war and friendly trade negotiation scenarios. We recommend shorting Renminbi (Rmb) currency to play US protectionism theme.In the full-blown trade war scenario, there is no hiding place for equity investors, in our opinion.

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…</p>

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

China

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities firm which acts as a broker, dealer for securities. The Company also provides investment advisory, placing and underwriting, nominee and custodian services.

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Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)

Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in...

Sean Maher

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province,...

Susan Finder

Asia Market Strategy: What Does US Protectionism Mean to China and ASEAN?

With the US trade deficit with China dwarfing those with other countries (including ASEAN), US-China trade negotiation will come front and center...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and...

Stewart Paterson

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