Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 16<sup>th</sup> November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a>  to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business in China (known as YY Live). JOYY will retain its overseas business.</li>
<li>The deal includes YY mobile app, YY.com website and PC YY, among others, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately US$3.6bn in cash and the transaction is expected to occur in 1H2021 subject to certain conditions.</li>
<li>According to Baidu, YY Live stands to benefit from the company’s large traffic and thriving mobile ecosystem while Baidu will receive immediate operational experience and knowhow for large-scale video-based social media development, as well as a creator network that will further strengthen Baidu's massive content provider network.</li>
<li>Baidu has been a late entrant to the thriving short video app market in China which is currently dominated by Douyin and Kuaishou. Baidu has been attempting to reduce its dependence on core advertising revenues, however, these efforts are yet to make any meaningful impact on the company’s top line and margins.</li>
</ul>


On 16th November, Baidu (BIDU US)  announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with JOYY (YY US)  to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business in China (known as YY Live). JOYY will retain its overseas business.
The deal includes YY mobile app, YY.com website and PC YY, among others, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately US$3.6bn in cash and the transaction is expected to occur in 1H2021 subject to certain conditions.
According to Baidu, YY Live stands to benefit from the company’s large traffic and thriving mobile ecosystem while Baidu will receive immediate operational experience and knowhow for large-scale video-based social media development, as well as a creator network that will further strengthen Baidu's massive content provider network.
Baidu has been a late entrant to the thriving short video app market in China which is currently dominated by Douyin and Kuaishou. Baidu has been attempting to reduce its dependence on core advertising revenues, however, these efforts are yet to make any meaningful impact on the company’s top line and margins.


Baidu: Acquisition of YY Live Is More Beneficial to JOYY than Baidu

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Embassy Office Parks REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<section><div id="ember1549">
<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/embassy-office-parks-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27925:1" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) </a> plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  </p></div>
<div><p>The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: </p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-good-assets-but-projections-might-be-a-tad-too-bullish" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-comparison-with-ait-and-a-look-at-the-required-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield</a>, and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-ipo-fy19-revised-down-yield-propped-up-by-zero-coupon-bond" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-trading-update-lowest-volume-traded-for-any-indian-listing-since-2018" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-placement-to-big-to-swallow-if-its-not-a-reverse-enquiry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry</a></li>
</ul></div>
</div></section><p>In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.</p>


Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN)  plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  
The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: 

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield, and
Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018
Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry

In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p>ByteDance’s Chinese rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a>  has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ahead of its rival Douyin. The company aims to raise up to US$5bn at a rumoured valuation of over US$50bn.</p><p>Kuaishou’s platform offers its users to create content through short videos and livestreams as well as sell and purchase products. On the other hand, it allows businesses to advertise and sell their products to the users of the platform.</p><p>China has the world’s largest internet population which accounted for about 23% of mobile internet users globally. The internet users in China have been increasingly spending time on video-based social and entertainment platforms.</p><p>These short video and live streaming platforms offer monetisation opportunities through virtual gifting and online marketing services. According to iResearch, both virtual gifting and mobile advertising through short videos and livestreaming will grow at a CAGR of 19.9% and 33.7% respectively through 2020-25E.</p><p>The company generates a majority of its revenues from live streaming (through virtual gifting) however, online marketing services and other services (e-commerce and other services) have been growing at higher rates over the last two years which we believe should drive future growth for Kuaishou.</p><p>In this insight, we examine the company’s business model, the industry and the revenue channels. We will be covering the company’s financials in detail in a follow-up insight.</p>

ByteDance’s Chinese rival Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)  has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ahead of its rival Douyin. The company aims to raise up to US$5bn at a rumoured valuation of over US$50bn.Kuaishou’s platform offers its users to create content through short videos and livestreams as well as sell and purchase products. On the other hand, it allows businesses to advertise and sell their products to the users of the platform.China has the world’s largest internet population which accounted for about 23% of mobile internet users globally. The internet users in China have been increasingly spending time on video-based social and entertainment platforms.These short video and live streaming platforms offer monetisation opportunities through virtual gifting and online marketing services. According to iResearch, both virtual gifting and mobile advertising through short videos and livestreaming will grow at a CAGR of 19.9% and 33.7% respectively through 2020-25E.The company generates a majority of its revenues from live streaming (through virtual gifting) however, online marketing services and other services (e-commerce and other services) have been growing at higher rates over the last two years which we believe should drive future growth for Kuaishou.In this insight, we examine the company’s business model, the industry and the revenue channels. We will be covering the company’s financials in detail in a follow-up insight.

Kuaishou IPO: Advertising and E-Commerce Businesses to Drive Future Growth

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<div>During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. </div>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>In light of the <strong>antitrust</strong> law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> and also Industrials such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)</a>expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caterpillar-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:697:1" rel="noopener">Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)</a> and staples such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-sa-020546b9-e58a-465b-a5ac-98e84143bf4c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27908:1" rel="noopener">Nestle SA (NESN SW)</a> . </div>
<div></div>
<div>Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelers-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10300:1" rel="noopener">Travelers Cos (TRV US)</a> as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. </div>


During COVID-19, tech stocks have led the markets supported by demand expansion, strong balance sheets filled with cash, and innovative products. At the end of the cycle, there should be a rotation towards cyclical and value stocks but this time around is policy-induced recovery and during the COVID-19 crisis, tech stocks have led the recovery ahead of the cyclical. The question is whether this will carry on and large tech names to continue leading market recovery while cyclical drag their feet?


The regulator in China has given dominant tech names a slap in the wrist with the anti-trust law that proposes to democratize the payment systems that will inevitably break up the monopolies and these companies will lose their customers' stickiness. 



In light of the antitrust law and the real economic recovery in China, investors should start to underweight technology stocks in China such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and start to overweight travel and tourism stocks such as Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH) , Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) , Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) and also Industrials such as Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK) and Sany Heavy Equipment Intl (631 HK)expecting that construction works can resume at full capacity anytime soon. 

Globally, dominant tech stocks (FANGS) such as Facebook Inc A (FB US) , Apple Inc (AAPL US) , Netflix Inc (NFLX US) and Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) should start to be underweight due to the potential punitive measures from the House if Democrats win. Investors should start to overweight industrial stocks such as Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) and staples such as Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US) and Nestle SA (NESN SW) . 

Investors should also consider start building positions in blue-chip with moat names such as Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US) and Travelers Cos (TRV US) as they provide stability and proxy to America's economic recovery. 

<p>It was reported by several news media outlets that Apple and Sony Music Entertainment have held discussions with Wondery, the producer of popular shows “Dirty John” and “Dr. Death” on a potential acquisition. Wondery is looking for about US$300-400m and at least four companies including Apple and Sony Music Entertainment (SME) have discussed with Wondery about a potential deal.</p><p>A deal is expected to be established in the coming months and the discussions are said to be in early stages. We believe this comes in response to streaming rival Spotify who has invested as much as US$400m over the last two years to expand its podcast offerings. Through M&amp;A deals, Spotify now has a stake in almost every aspect of the podcast value chain including content, distribution and monetisation (ad technology and marketplaces).</p><p>Spotify has expanded its library of exclusive podcasts to differentiate its offering from Apple Music which makes Spotify more appealing to listeners of audio content.</p>

It was reported by several news media outlets that Apple and Sony Music Entertainment have held discussions with Wondery, the producer of popular shows “Dirty John” and “Dr. Death” on a potential acquisition. Wondery is looking for about US$300-400m and at least four companies including Apple and Sony Music Entertainment (SME) have discussed with Wondery about a potential deal.A deal is expected to be established in the coming months and the discussions are said to be in early stages. We believe this comes in response to streaming rival Spotify who has invested as much as US$400m over the last two years to expand its podcast offerings. Through M&amp;A deals, Spotify now has a stake in almost every aspect of the podcast value chain including content, distribution and monetisation (ad technology and marketplaces).Spotify has expanded its library of exclusive podcasts to differentiate its offering from Apple Music which makes Spotify more appealing to listeners of audio content.

Apple and Sony Music Compete to Buy Wondery to Take on Rival Spotify’s Podcast Offerings

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Baidu: Acquisition of YY Live Is More Beneficial to JOYY than Baidu

Baidu announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with JOYY to acquire its domestic video-based entertainment live streaming business...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

Embassy Office Parks REIT plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement,...

Sumeet Singh

Kuaishou IPO: Advertising and E-Commerce Businesses to Drive Future Growth

ByteDance’s Chinese rival Kuaishou Technology has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the HKEX at a rumoured valuation of over US$50bn.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tech Sell-Off: Stop or Carry On?

In light of the anti-trust law in China, real economic recovery, higher corporate tax rates in the US, and breakup of dominant tech firms,...

Henry Soediarko

Apple and Sony Music Compete to Buy Wondery to Take on Rival Spotify’s Podcast Offerings

It was reported by several news media outlets that Apple and Sony Music Entertainment have held discussions with Wondery, the producer of popular...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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