ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a> continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.</li>
<li>CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. </li>
<li>The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. </li>
</ul>



Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.
CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. 
The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. 


Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) - Riding the Affordability Wave

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.</li><li>VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales

<ul><li>We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.</li><li>Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Strong Marketing Sales Trend to Continue in 2H24

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Indonesia

PT Ciputra Development Tbk develops and sells real estate including office spaces, shopping centers, and related facilities as well as industrial estates. The Company also designs, develops, and maintains housing facilities including golf courses, clubs, restaurants, recreational places, and related facilities.

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Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)