Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The ban on dining-in as part of the stricter measures by the Singapore government starting today until next month has caused some fears in the market and ComfortDelgro is not spared. Singapore is on target to reach 2/3 of the country fully vaccinated by the 9th of Aug 2021 during the National Day hence there should be some restrictions easing as the Singapore government has to open the economy at some stage which means more mobility and reinstatement of dining-in among others. The government has mentioned that Singapore will live alongside COVID-19 as it expects to shift from pandemic to endemic. </p>
<p>While mall operators such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55:1" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a> have to give some form of rent relief to their tenants, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>does not need to give relief to its drivers and mobility does not seem to drastically decrease. Investors should expect some restrictions on easing measures during the National Day period that will lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> share price. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/219/946/original/image_98050974441626926957065.png?1626926957" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="219946"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: analyst</p>
</div>

The ban on dining-in as part of the stricter measures by the Singapore government starting today until next month has caused some fears in the market and ComfortDelgro is not spared. Singapore is on target to reach 2/3 of the country fully vaccinated by the 9th of Aug 2021 during the National Day hence there should be some restrictions easing as the Singapore government has to open the economy at some stage which means more mobility and reinstatement of dining-in among others. The government has mentioned that Singapore will live alongside COVID-19 as it expects to shift from pandemic to endemic. 
While mall operators such as Capitaland (CAPL SP) and City Developments (CIT SP) have to give some form of rent relief to their tenants, Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)does not need to give relief to its drivers and mobility does not seem to drastically decrease. Investors should expect some restrictions on easing measures during the National Day period that will lift Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price. 


source: analyst


ComfortDelgro (CD): Buy On (Temp) Weakness

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> restructuring plan is deemed 'fair and reasonable'</h3><ul><li>CAPL proposed to split its business into a privately held real estate development arm, CapitaLand Investment (CLI), which would become the largest real estate investment manager (REIM) on the Singapore bourse, with pro forma real estate AUM of ~S$115bn as at 31De20. Under the planned scheme, shareholders would effectively own a direct stake in a company with lower leverage, as the pro forma net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 times for CLI, against CAPL’s net debt to equity of 0.68 times as at 31Dec20</li><li>Evercore Asia, the IFA, has called the value of the deal fair and reasonable from a financial point of view, as of the latest practicable date and shareholders can also choose to sell their shares on the open market, if they can get a higher price</li><li>The implied consideration represents a premium over the volume-weighted average price up to date of the restructuring announcement. The implied value in the deal includes both a consideration of S$4.102/share and the FY20 dividend for those who held shares by 4May21. CAPL will hold an EGM and a scheme meeting on 10Aug21 for shareholders to decide on the planned transaction.</li></ul>

SingaporeCapitaland (CAPL SP) restructuring plan is deemed 'fair and reasonable'CAPL proposed to split its business into a privately held real estate development arm, CapitaLand Investment (CLI), which would become the largest real estate investment manager (REIM) on the Singapore bourse, with pro forma real estate AUM of ~S$115bn as at 31De20. Under the planned scheme, shareholders would effectively own a direct stake in a company with lower leverage, as the pro forma net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 times for CLI, against CAPL’s net debt to equity of 0.68 times as at 31Dec20Evercore Asia, the IFA, has called the value of the deal fair and reasonable from a financial point of view, as of the latest practicable date and shareholders can also choose to sell their shares on the open market, if they can get a higher priceThe implied consideration represents a premium over the volume-weighted average price up to date of the restructuring announcement. The implied value in the deal includes both a consideration of S$4.102/share and the FY20 dividend for those who held shares by 4May21. CAPL will hold an EGM and a scheme meeting on 10Aug21 for shareholders to decide on the planned transaction.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (19Jul21) - CAPL Restructuring Plan Fair and Reasonable

<h2>Singapore</h2>
<h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p> </p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>SPHREIT</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Period</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>3Q21</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Gross Revenue (S$ m)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>69.6 (+82.8% YoY)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>NPI (S$ m)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>Not Disclosed</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>DPU (S$ c)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>1.38 (+176.0% YoY)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>NAV per Unit (S$)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>Not Disclosed</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>P/B (x)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>1.02 (Based on 2Q21 NAV)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Occupancy (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>98.4</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Reversion (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>Not Disclosed</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Gearing (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>Not Disclosed</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Cost of Debt (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>1.86</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>5.62</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Debt Hedged (%)</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>58</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Target Price</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>NA</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 141.25pt;">
<p>Rating</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 141.2pt;">
<p>NA</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Singapore
SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)




 


SPHREIT




Period


3Q21




Gross Revenue (S$ m)


69.6 (+82.8% YoY)




NPI (S$ m)


Not Disclosed




DPU (S$ c)


1.38 (+176.0% YoY)




NAV per Unit (S$)


Not Disclosed




P/B (x)


1.02 (Based on 2Q21 NAV)




Occupancy (%)


98.4




Reversion (%)


Not Disclosed




Gearing (%)


Not Disclosed




Cost of Debt (%)


1.86




1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)


5.62




Debt Hedged (%)


58




Target Price


NA




Rating


NA





ASEAN Builder's Scoop (13Jul21) - SPHREIT No Mention of Rebates

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. </p><p>CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding. CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.</p><p>We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ctos-digital-pre-ipo-credit-where-credit-s-due" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit where credit’s due</a>.</p><p>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</p>

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is an investment holding whose subsidiaries are principally involved in the business of credit reporting, digital software related services, software development, outsourcing and training services and investment holding. CTOS was the largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 71.2% in 2020 according to the IMR Report. Its associate, Experian, was the second largest credit reporting agency (CRA) in Malaysia, with an estimated market share in terms of revenue of 17.5%.We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, CTOS Digital Pre-IPO - Credit where credit’s due.In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

CTOS Digital IPO - Market Leader, Strong PE Record and Cornerstone

<h2>Singapore</h2>
<h3>SREITs – Reflation is working in SREIT’s favour (BUY FCT DASIN AAREIT AREIT ECWREIT)</h3>
<p>With Singapore moving into Phase 3, economic recovery should regain momentum, albeit uneven across sectors. The accelerated timetable for US interest rate hikes has triggered yield spread compression, but also signaled a stronger and sustainable economic growth, which bodes well for trade-dependent Singapore. We reinitiate the SREIT sector with BUY. Top picks are FCT, DASIN, AAREIT and AREIT. SGREIT offers a good entry point for midterm recovery play; while ECWREIT could see a DPU boost from deferred DI.</p>
<ul>
<li>Economy recovery provides strong tailwind for yield, albeit uneven across sectors. Following a setback from a month-long partial lockdown in Phase 2, Singapore has resume gradual reopening on 14Jun, thus setting economy back on track to recovery. However, we should see some deviation from initial expected timeline and recovery pace across sectors. In particular, tourism-related sectors are set to see further delays in recovery given the slower lifting of global travel curbs and the recent cut in capacity limits at local attractions. On the other hand, domestic-driven expenditures and outward-oriented sectors, such as retail and manufacturing, are expected to benefit from the pick-up in demand</li>
<li>We prefer Retail and Commercial subsectors, which should recover on stronger pace and offer attractive yields within the SREIT sector, while trading at c.1.0x forward P/B. Industrial subsector offers mixed picture, where we are positive on warehouse space, but neutral on other property types. Continued M&amp;A activities within the Industrial subsector should boost future DPU growth in addition to organic growth</li>
<li>We underweight both Hospitality and Healthcare subsectors. Outlook for Hospitality subsector remains cloudy in near term. Nonetheless, we remain upbeat on the longer-term prospect of the subsector in anticipation of international border reopening. On the other hand, the robust valuations of Healthcare subsector and low cash-flow growth realizations could indicate over optimism in investors’ expectations</li>
<li>Our top picks: FCT (Buy; S$2.89) for its faster recovery in near term. DASIN (Buy; S$0.81) for China-focused retail play with its Greater Bay Area (GBA) exposure. We favour AAREIT (Buy; S$1.60) and AREIT (Buy; S$3.55) for their strong balance sheet, which allows them financial flexibility in pursuing new acquisitions, or embarking on development/ redevelopment/ AEI projects. Tactical investment into ECWREIT (Buy; S$0.82) on potential DPU boost from deferred DI.
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/216/247/original/image003+%283%29.png?1625105065" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="216247"></figure>
</section>
</li>
</ul>

Singapore
SREITs – Reflation is working in SREIT’s favour (BUY FCT DASIN AAREIT AREIT ECWREIT)
With Singapore moving into Phase 3, economic recovery should regain momentum, albeit uneven across sectors. The accelerated timetable for US interest rate hikes has triggered yield spread compression, but also signaled a stronger and sustainable economic growth, which bodes well for trade-dependent Singapore. We reinitiate the SREIT sector with BUY. Top picks are FCT, DASIN, AAREIT and AREIT. SGREIT offers a good entry point for midterm recovery play; while ECWREIT could see a DPU boost from deferred DI.

Economy recovery provides strong tailwind for yield, albeit uneven across sectors. Following a setback from a month-long partial lockdown in Phase 2, Singapore has resume gradual reopening on 14Jun, thus setting economy back on track to recovery. However, we should see some deviation from initial expected timeline and recovery pace across sectors. In particular, tourism-related sectors are set to see further delays in recovery given the slower lifting of global travel curbs and the recent cut in capacity limits at local attractions. On the other hand, domestic-driven expenditures and outward-oriented sectors, such as retail and manufacturing, are expected to benefit from the pick-up in demand
We prefer Retail and Commercial subsectors, which should recover on stronger pace and offer attractive yields within the SREIT sector, while trading at c.1.0x forward P/B. Industrial subsector offers mixed picture, where we are positive on warehouse space, but neutral on other property types. Continued M&amp;A activities within the Industrial subsector should boost future DPU growth in addition to organic growth
We underweight both Hospitality and Healthcare subsectors. Outlook for Hospitality subsector remains cloudy in near term. Nonetheless, we remain upbeat on the longer-term prospect of the subsector in anticipation of international border reopening. On the other hand, the robust valuations of Healthcare subsector and low cash-flow growth realizations could indicate over optimism in investors’ expectations
Our top picks: FCT (Buy; S$2.89) for its faster recovery in near term. DASIN (Buy; S$0.81) for China-focused retail play with its Greater Bay Area (GBA) exposure. We favour AAREIT (Buy; S$1.60) and AREIT (Buy; S$3.55) for their strong balance sheet, which allows them financial flexibility in pursuing new acquisitions, or embarking on development/ redevelopment/ AEI projects. Tactical investment into ECWREIT (Buy; S$0.82) on potential DPU boost from deferred DI.






ASEAN Builder's Scoop (1Jul21) - SREITs Reflation Is Working in Its Favour

Singapore

CapitaLand Limited is a real estate company focused on investment holding. The Company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in investment holding, real estate development, investment in real estate financial products and real estate assets, investment advisory and management services, as well as the management of serviced residences.

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Capitaland (CAPL SP)

ComfortDelgro (CD): Buy On (Temp) Weakness

Capitaland and City Dev are to provide rent relief to their tenants, Comfort does not need to give relief to its drivers, and SG mobility rate is...

Henry Soediarko

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (19Jul21) - CAPL Restructuring Plan Fair and Reasonable

CAPL restructuring plan fair and reasonable; MPI restructures logistics biz; AWC to invest THB100bn in mixed-use developments; Indo extends tax...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (13Jul21) - SPHREIT No Mention of Rebates

SPHREIT no mention of rebates; CAPL opens RC the Bund Shanghai; LMRT extends mall closure in Medan; SLI plans for 3bn shares follow-on offer; 2Q21...

SCCM Asia Research

CTOS Digital IPO - Market Leader, Strong PE Record and Cornerstone

CTOS Digital (CTOS) aims to raise up to US$291m via its Malaysian IPO. It is majority owned by Creador, a PE firm. CTOS is the largest credit...

Sumeet Singh

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (1Jul21) - SREITs Reflation Is Working in Its Favour

SREITs reflation is working in its favour; 2Q21 resi prices up 0.9% QoQ; CAPL exits malls, expands into logistics in Japan; KREIT divests Brisbane...

SCCM Asia Research

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