Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

While investors are divided in their opinions on whether the 11 newly licensed Indian payment banks will complement the existing banking infrastructure or disrupt it, we are of the opinion that payment banks will complement full-service banks.Given the limited purview of services that payment banks are allowed to offer a customer, they will miss the two most important benefits of running a banking franchise:<ol><li class="p1">a low cost of funds through large sticky customer deposits;</li><li class="p1">the ability to lend money at a rate commensurate with risk taken.</li></ol>As a result of these limitations, we believe the payment bank business model is a no-moat one, and will mainly be volume-driven on a thin margin and fees earned from additional services sold for full-service banks through a lead-generation model.Our narrow moat ratings on Indian banks therefore remain intact.Analyst: Suruchi Jain

While investors are divided in their opinions on whether the 11 newly licensed Indian payment banks will complement the existing banking infrastructure or disrupt it, we are of the opinion that payment banks will complement full-service banks.Given the limited purview of services that payment banks are allowed to offer a customer, they will miss the two most important benefits of running a banking franchise:a low cost of funds through large sticky customer deposits;the ability to lend money at a rate commensurate with risk taken.As a result of these limitations, we believe the payment bank business model is a no-moat one, and will mainly be volume-driven on a thin margin and fees earned from additional services sold for full-service banks through a lead-generation model.Our narrow moat ratings on Indian banks therefore remain intact.Analyst: Suruchi Jain

Payment Banks Will Drive Distribution Reach and Prove Complementary to Indian Banks

<ul><li>We have written previously on why <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/324ae38b-37f4-4a65-940b-038231905ff2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1743">The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized</a>,</li><li>In our next report, <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tlac-regulations-will-destroy-banks-as-much-as-it-saves-them" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:1776">TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them</a>, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.</li><li>In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.</li><li>What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.</li></ul>

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized,In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them, we focussed in on the negative side of the barbell, the banks that are set to struggle.In this report we balance the scale, and discuss the positive end of the barbell. Those banks which are continuing to flourish, and are well placed to take advantage of the weakness of their competitors.What is interesting in the world of increased banking regulation, and less leverage in particular, is how well most banks in South East Asia fare. But also, how some banks compare very well vs. others in the region.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

Equity Bottom-Up

Second-quarter 2016 earnings for HDFC Bank broadly met our estimates; however, loan growth was higher than expected.First-half fiscal 2016 stand-alone earnings ended at INR 55 billion, versus our annual consolidated earnings of INR 118 billion.What the bank lost in margins (which fell by 10 basis points over the prior year to 4.2%) it more than made up with a stupendous loan growth of 29% over last year.The bank experienced above-30% growth across 45% of its loan portfolio, comprising home loans, personal loans, agricultural loans and two-wheeler loans, as it gained market share over competitorsAnalyst: Suruchi Jain

Second-quarter 2016 earnings for HDFC Bank broadly met our estimates; however, loan growth was higher than expected.First-half fiscal 2016 stand-alone earnings ended at INR 55 billion, versus our annual consolidated earnings of INR 118 billion.What the bank lost in margins (which fell by 10 basis points over the prior year to 4.2%) it more than made up with a stupendous loan growth of 29% over last year.The bank experienced above-30% growth across 45% of its loan portfolio, comprising home loans, personal loans, agricultural loans and two-wheeler loans, as it gained market share over competitorsAnalyst: Suruchi Jain

Q2 2016 Earnings in Line; Increasing FVE to INR 1130 on Higher Loan Growth Expectation

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

Payment Banks Will Drive Distribution Reach and Prove Complementary to Indian Banks

While investors are divided in their opinions on whether the 11 newly licensed Indian payment banks will complement the existing banking...

Morningstar, Inc.

45 Banks in SE Asia Can Grow for 10 Years Without Need for Capital

We have written previously on why The World of Banking is Becoming Ever More Polarized, In our next report, TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as...

Daniel Tabbush

Q2 2016 Earnings in Line; Increasing FVE to INR 1130 on Higher Loan Growth Expectation

Second-quarter 2016 earnings for HDFC Bank broadly met our estimates; however, loan growth was higher than expected.First-half fiscal 2016...

Morningstar, Inc.

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