Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading 12 September.</li>
<li>There are changes expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> listing should result in more changes.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-future-m-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Future M</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-bm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27873:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro BM</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alteogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15886:1" rel="noopener">Alteogen</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3970:1" rel="noopener">SKC Co</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading 12 September.
There are changes expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices. The Shift Up (462870 KS) listing should result in more changes.
The largest flows will be in Posco Future M, Ecopro BM, SK Biopharmaceuticals, Alteogen, Douzone Bizon, SKC Co and Kakao Corp.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in May and June 2024.</li>
<li>On average, the share buyback announcements for the 13 companies that announced share buybacks in Korea represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in May and June 2024.
On average, the share buyback announcements for the 13 companies that announced share buybacks in Korea represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS).


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2024)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.</li>
<li>Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) will raise KRW 435bn (US$315m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,482bn (US$2.52bn). Listing is expected later this month.
Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 226x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
Inclusion in the KOSPI 200 looks likely in June 2025, while inclusion in global indices is likely in December. But there could be some passive inflows in September.


Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).</li>
</ul>


Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).


Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It

There should be 1 change for each of the Battery, Bio and Game indices plus 2 changes for each of the Internet and BBIG indices. The Shift Up...

Brian Freitas

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Shift Up will raise US$315m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$2.52bn. Inclusion in the KOSPI200 is likely in June25 while inclusion in global...

Brian Freitas

Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Shift Up Listing Adds to It

There should be 1 change for each of the Battery, Bio and Game indices plus 2 changes for each of the Internet and BBIG indices. The Shift Up...

Brian Freitas

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (May and June 2024)

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in May and...

Douglas Kim

Shift Up IPO: Details, Bookbuilding & Index Inclusion

Shift Up will raise US$315m in its IPO, valuing the company at US$2.52bn. Inclusion in the KOSPI200 is likely in June25 while inclusion in global...

Brian Freitas

Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett