Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>It is now clear that Netmarble sold part of its stake in Kakao Bank yesterday in the market to finance the acquisition of SpinX, a social casino company.</p><p>In other words, Netmarble sold its Kakao Bank stake because it needed immediate cash. <span>Earlier this month, Netmarble announced that it would purchase a 100% stake in Leonardo Interactive Holdings Limited, the parent company of SpinX.</span></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The 100% stake acquisition price is ₩2.513T.</strong></p></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/219/original/Screen+Shot+2021-08-11+at+1.48.24+AM.png?1628661029" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223219"></figure></section><p>Netmarble said in a regulatory filing that it would pay 80% of the acquisition price at the time of contract termination and the remaining 20% ​​over the next four years.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/225/original/Screen+Shot+2021-08-11+at+1.51.07+AM.png?1628661602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223225"></figure></section><p><strong>It means that the total money Netmarble needs right now is ₩2.104T, which is 80% of the acquisition amount. Netmarble revealed that ₩1.779T of this ₩2.104T was covered by short-term borrowing. In other words, the immediate cash needed right now is ₩232B.</strong></p><p>However, Netmarble's cash assets at the end of this first quarter stood at ₩260B. Even ₩232B is a size that needs to use up all of its cash holdings, so it places a significant financial burden on Netmarble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/228/original/Screen+Shot+2021-08-11+at+2.05.56+AM.png?1628662449" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223228"></figure></section>

It is now clear that Netmarble sold part of its stake in Kakao Bank yesterday in the market to finance the acquisition of SpinX, a social casino company.In other words, Netmarble sold its Kakao Bank stake because it needed immediate cash. Earlier this month, Netmarble announced that it would purchase a 100% stake in Leonardo Interactive Holdings Limited, the parent company of SpinX.The 100% stake acquisition price is ₩2.513T.Netmarble said in a regulatory filing that it would pay 80% of the acquisition price at the time of contract termination and the remaining 20% ​​over the next four years.It means that the total money Netmarble needs right now is ₩2.104T, which is 80% of the acquisition amount. Netmarble revealed that ₩1.779T of this ₩2.104T was covered by short-term borrowing. In other words, the immediate cash needed right now is ₩232B.However, Netmarble's cash assets at the end of this first quarter stood at ₩260B. Even ₩232B is a size that needs to use up all of its cash holdings, so it places a significant financial burden on Netmarble.

Three Local Stocks Exposed to Netmarble's Stake Sale Risk: NCsoft, HYBE, & Kakao Games

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>, Russian internet play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Brazilian beverages giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a>, and a rebound call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">1</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Information Technology</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">2</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">3</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">4</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">5</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Real Estate</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">6</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambev-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24454:1" rel="noopener">Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">7</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">8</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Communication</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">China</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">9</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Staples</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9062px;">10</td>
<td style="width: 262.578px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 185.766px;">Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td style="width: 147.797px;">India</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 74.9531px;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left; width: 746px;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include bottom-fishing in Chinese education through New Oriental Education (EDU US), Russian internet play Yandex (YNDX US), Brazilian beverages giant Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ), and a rebound call on Tencent (700 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) 
Information Technology
India
19


2

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
12


3

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
92


4

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
88


5

China Resources Land (1109 HK) 
Real Estate
China
33


6

Ambev SA (ABEV3 BZ) 
Consumer Staples
Brazil
56


7

NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) 
Communication
Korea (South)
18


8

Tencent (700 HK) 
Communication
China
61


9

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) 
Consumer Staples
India
70


10

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) 
Consumer Discretionary
India
89

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
<p data-testid="paragraph-0">On 3 August, a Chinese state media outlet (Economic Information Daily) mentioned that the online video games are like "spiritual opium." The article mentioned more curbs on the online video game industry are necessary as there are significant concerns that these games may be harming millions of people, especially the younger generation.</p>
<p data-testid="paragraph-0"><em><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/tencent-falls-after-china-media-calls-online-gaming-spiritual-opium-2021-08-03/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Economic Information Daily</a> stated that "No industry, no sport, can be allowed to develop in a way that will destroy a generation," likening online video games to "electronic drugs".</em></p>
</div><p>We believe that there is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online/mobile gaming sector in China which could severely impact major game companies such as Krafton. </p><p>We now believe that the valuation of Krafton is likely to drift towards the low-to-mid end of our valuation sensitivity analysis over the next 6 to 12 months, which would suggest implied market cap of 17.3 trillion won to 23 trillion won (344,487 won per share to 455,942 won per share). We continue to have a NEGATIVE view of the Krafton IPO. </p>


On 3 August, a Chinese state media outlet (Economic Information Daily) mentioned that the online video games are like "spiritual opium." The article mentioned more curbs on the online video game industry are necessary as there are significant concerns that these games may be harming millions of people, especially the younger generation.
Economic Information Daily stated that "No industry, no sport, can be allowed to develop in a way that will destroy a generation," likening online video games to "electronic drugs".
We believe that there is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online/mobile gaming sector in China which could severely impact major game companies such as Krafton. We now believe that the valuation of Krafton is likely to drift towards the low-to-mid end of our valuation sensitivity analysis over the next 6 to 12 months, which would suggest implied market cap of 17.3 trillion won to 23 trillion won (344,487 won per share to 455,942 won per share). We continue to have a NEGATIVE view of the Krafton IPO. 

Chinese Government to Crack Down on the Online Gaming Sector? A Big Negative for the Krafton IPO

As expected, Krafton's IPO price has been confirmed at ₩498,000, the upper end of the indicative price band. So, Krafton gets to raise a total of ₩4.3T through this public offering, and its market cap reaches ₩24.4T.







Pricing
Low
High (final)


Price
₩400,000
₩498,000


Base deal size
₩3,461.7B
₩4,309.8B


- Institutional allotment
₩1,903.9B
₩2,370.4B


Implied market cap
₩19,559.2B
₩24,351.2B


- Discount
30.93%
14.01%

Source: DART

The competitive rate for institutional subscriptions came out to be 243.2 to 1, similar to what has already been leaked from the market. Compared to the recent mega IPOs that easily exceeded 1,000 to 1, it can be seen that this IPO's institutional participation rate was low. However, considering that this IPO has a substantially larger offering size and a very aggressive price, it can be concluded that the interest of institutions was higher than expected.









By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


Local publicly raised funds
231
37.20%
445,792,000
38.52%


Local brokerages/investment advisories
18
2.90%
28,393,000
2.45%


Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
94
15.14%
242,965,000
20.99%


Local others (mostly discretionary investment companies - local hedge funds)
104
16.75%
234,982,000
20.30%


Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
146
23.51%
62,498,497
5.40%


Foreign others (mostly local hot money)
28
4.51%
142,697,000
12.33%


Total
621
100.00%
1,157,327,497
100.00%


Subscription rate
243.15 to 1

Source: DART

Looking at the application results for each type of institution below, we can find a very interesting fact.
First, a large number of foreign institutions with business relationships (i.e., major foreign investment institutions) participated in this subscription. The share of 23.5% by the number of participating institutions is significantly higher than the typical level for local IPOs. Of course, most of them applied based on actual demand, so their proportion of total subscription volume is only 5.4%. However, considering that all these quantities are actual demand, we can safely say that their participation level is quite high. This is a result consistent with what Mirase Asset (the bookrunner) has continuously leaked to the market about the active participation of many major overseas institutions.

Another point to note is that the number of participating local institutions is remarkably low, consistent with the initial forecast that most small and medium-sized institutions skipped this IPO due to scheduling conflicts with LG Energy Solutions.
Finally, institutions belonging to the category 'Foreign others' were quite aggressive in taking orders despite a small number of participating institutions. These are mainly local hot money managers, who are the most active in early profit realization trading. In other words, their aggressive move to secure Krafton IPO shares means that they are heavily betting on a short-term price increase due to the entry of local retailers immediately after Krafton's listing.

The category 'Foreign' indicates foreign institutional investors with transaction records. They are foreign institutional investors who have a business relationship with the underwriter or of whom the underwriter acquirer is aware of the identity. So, these foreign institutions can be considered well-established overseas institutions actually based overseas.
In contrast, the category 'Foreign others' indicates foreign institutional investors without transaction records. Most of them are local hot money only whose legal office is registered overseas.
The "Unspecified" category usually indicates that they want the shares above the high end. With that in mind, 37.4% have gone for the upper end or above. The other 57.5% selected 75-100% of the upper end. So, most of the orders (95%) are priced at 75-100% of the upper end or higher. Unlike the initial concerns, we can say the institutional pricing is quite aggressive.









By price
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
59
9.50%
279,666,000
24.16%


75-100% of high end
246
39.61%
665,029,823
57.46%


50-75% of high end
1
0.16%
1,000
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
7
1.13%
11,370,000
0.98%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
1
0.16%
1,000
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
3
0.48%
77,000
0.01%


0-25% of median
105
16.91%
48,077,000
4.15%


Low end or below
27
4.35%
37,000
0.00%


Unspecified
172
27.70%
153,068,674
13.23%


Total
621
100.00%
1,157,327,497
100.00%

Source: DART



Krafton Bookbuilding: Subscription/Lockup Data & Resulting Implications

<p>The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2><strong>A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday</strong></h2>
<p><strong>First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.</strong></p>
<p><em>Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.</em></p>
<p><strong>The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.</strong></p>
<p><strong>When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.</strong></p>
<p>In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.</p>
<p>However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.</p>
</div>

The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.
A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday
First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.
Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.
The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.
When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.
In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.
However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.


Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

South Korea

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)

Three Local Stocks Exposed to Netmarble's Stake Sale Risk: NCsoft, HYBE, & Kakao Games

Netmarble will continue to need short-term cash. Perhaps, for this reason, the stock prices of all three stocks exposed to this risk have undergone...

Sanghyun Park

Screening for GEMs: August 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Chinese Government to Crack Down on the Online Gaming Sector? A Big Negative for the Krafton IPO

There is an increasing probability of the Chinese government cracking down much more severely on the online gaming sector in China that could cause...

Douglas Kim

Krafton Bookbuilding: Subscription/Lockup Data & Resulting Implications

As expected, Krafton's IPO price has been confirmed at ₩498,000, the upper end of the band. This post details subscription/lockup orders by each...

Sanghyun Park

Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

This post is a quick recap of what's happened yesterday in the Krafton IPO bookbuilding. It examines the market rumor that surfaced yesterday and...

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)