Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry</li>
<li>Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$4.1bn, split (+HK$1.7bn) for Shanghai and (+HK$2.4bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>. The largest outflows were in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koolearn-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">Koolearn (1797 HK)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry
Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$4.1bn, split (+HK$1.7bn) for Shanghai and (+HK$2.4bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were in Tencent (700 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). The largest outflows were inKoolearn (1797 HK)and China Mobile (941 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$3.4bn, split (+HK$1.58bn) for Shanghai and (+HK$1.82bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index (2828 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19717:1" rel="noopener">Gcl New Energy (451 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$3.4bn, split (+HK$1.58bn) for Shanghai and (+HK$1.82bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were in Tencent (700 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK). The largest outflows were in Hang Seng H Share Index (2828 HK) and Gcl New Energy (451 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Li Auto, Kuaishou, and outflows from Tsingtao Brewery.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Li Auto, Kuaishou, and outflows from Tsingtao Brewery.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $8.1bn Inflows in October

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hana Financial Group reported a loss in its China banking business in 9MQ22</li>
<li>Hana Bank (China) recorded credit costs at KRW119bn or 20% of group total</li>
<li>Off balance sheet commitments in China appear to be moving on balance sheet </li>
</ul>


Hana Financial Group reported a loss in its China banking business in 9MQ22
Hana Bank (China) recorded credit costs at KRW119bn or 20% of group total
Off balance sheet commitments in China appear to be moving on balance sheet 


United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$4.1bn, split (+HK$1.7bn) for...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$3.4bn, split (+HK$1.58bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $8.1bn Inflows in October

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Li Auto, Kuaishou, Tsingtao Brewery.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hana - Granular Data On China

Granular data from Hana Bank (China) suggests major deterioration there, and there appears to be off-balance sheet commitments that are moving on...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$4.1bn, split (+HK$1.7bn) for...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~HK$3.4bn, split (+HK$1.58bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $8.1bn Inflows in October

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Li Auto, Kuaishou, Tsingtao Brewery.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hana - Granular Data On China

Granular data from Hana Bank (China) suggests major deterioration there, and there appears to be off-balance sheet commitments that are moving on...

Daniel Tabbush

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (11 November 2022)

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)