Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Realized/Unrealized gains on securities are increasingly oversized relative to profit</li>
<li>In the latest quarter these are USD10.1bn compared with net profit of USD7.0bn</li>
<li>HSBC's credit costs rose over 100% both YoY and QoQ</li>
</ul>


Realized/Unrealized gains on securities are increasingly oversized relative to profit
In the latest quarter these are USD10.1bn compared with net profit of USD7.0bn
HSBC's credit costs rose over 100% both YoY and QoQ


HSBC - Realized/Unrealized Gains Oversized To Profit, Soaring Credit Costs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Nonferrous Mining Corp / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>StandChart may need to take further impairment hit on China Bohai Bank</li>
<li>VIU model is used to justify the higher carrying value compared to fair value of the holdings.  There is zero headroom between the VIU model and the carrying amount.</li>
<li>We looked at VIU model assumptions for HSBC and StandChart. A declining NIM is likely put further pressure on the VIU model output for StandChart.  </li>
</ul>


StandChart may need to take further impairment hit on China Bohai Bank
VIU model is used to justify the higher carrying value compared to fair value of the holdings.  There is zero headroom between the VIU model and the carrying amount.
We looked at VIU model assumptions for HSBC and StandChart. A declining NIM is likely put further pressure on the VIU model output for StandChart.  


StandChart Is Likely to Have More China Bohai Impairment

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance. HSBC Holdings operates worldwide.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC operates as a bank. The Bank services includes retail banking and payment services, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management operations solutions. Bank of Georgia Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, Belarus, and Georgia.

Secure Trust Bank PLC accepts deposits and offers retail banking services.  The Company offers automobile and retail point of sale financing, and personal unsecured lending.

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, UK Private banking, and Group Centre. The company provides private banking services, such as current accounts, deposit accounts, loans, overdrafts, and foreign exchange services; wealth planning services comprising estate and tax planning, pensions, and wealth preservation and generation; and discretionary investment management services, including asset management and developing tailored investment strategies. It also offers retail banking products and services, such as savings and current accounts; consumer finance products in motor finance, retail finance, and unsecured personal lending areas; and SME?s funding for asset finance, invoice finance, and real estate finance. In addition, the company offers commercial banking services comprising financing and cash transaction requirements of SMEs, as well as household cash management and insurance services. Further, the company offers leasing, debt collection, and property rental and management services. Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HSBC - Realized/Unrealized Gains Oversized To Profit, Soaring Credit Costs

With new data from Dah Sing, BEA, Public Bank (HK), it becomes clear that credit metrics in Hong Kong are worsening. HSBC is caught geopolitically...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

StandChart Is Likely to Have More China Bohai Impairment

StandChart is likely to take more impairment hit on China Bohai with continue NIM decline of the latter. We reviewed both of HSBC and StandChart's...

Fern Wang

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

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