Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After last week's Bear Porn note, this explains best the focus of the note.</li><li>We have a critical few weeks ahead of us as we open with a gap down on the index and many stocks on Thursday 22nd.</li><li>However, I think I will focus on just a few things that matter most, the four essential heavy weights and, last but not least, the long-term chart of the Hang Seng Index.</li></ul>

After last week's Bear Porn note, this explains best the focus of the note.We have a critical few weeks ahead of us as we open with a gap down on the index and many stocks on Thursday 22nd.However, I think I will focus on just a few things that matter most, the four essential heavy weights and, last but not least, the long-term chart of the Hang Seng Index.

Hang Seng Index, Tencent, HSBC, HKEX, and Alibaba

<ul>
<li>Over the last few days, the banks and financials have been acting very poorly.</li>
<li>The gap down on Wednesday in a few sectors and stocks got my attention as there was a bearish setup before today's trading day.</li>
<li>A gap, if not filled, will usually mark a change or acceleration of a trend. </li>
</ul>


Over the last few days, the banks and financials have been acting very poorly.
The gap down on Wednesday in a few sectors and stocks got my attention as there was a bearish setup before today's trading day.
A gap, if not filled, will usually mark a change or acceleration of a trend. 


Hang Seng Index Constituents 6th July 2022

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

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Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US equities ended slightly higher with the S&amp;P up 0.7% and Nasdaq up 1%. Sectoral gains were led by Communication Services and IT, up 1.7% and 1.2% respectively. US 10Y Treasury yields were 1bp tighter at 1.55%. European markets were mixed with the DAX and CAC up 0.1% and 0.5% while FTSE ended 0.5% lower. Brazil’s Bovespa ended 1.2% lower. In the Middle East, UAE’s ADX was up 0.7% and Saudi TASI was up 0.1% on Sunday. Asian markets opened broadly mixed – Shanghai and HSI are down 0.3% and 0.1% while STI and Nikkei were up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. US IG and HY CDS spreads were 0.6bp and 1.5bp tighter. EU Main CDS spreads were flat and Crossover CDS spreads were 0.7bp wider. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads tightened 1bp.

6 New Deals incl. HSBC, Temasek, Wespac; Macro; Rating Changes; Talking Heads; Top Gainers and Lo...

US markets ended the day mixed with the S&amp;P down 0.2% and Nasdaq up 0.1%. Materials and Industrials, down 1.2% and 0.7% dragged the index while Utlities, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, were up 0.8%, 0.3% and 0.2% providing support. HSBC’s Q2 profit topped forecasts (details below). General Motors and Alibaba will be reporting earnings later this week. The CAC, FTSE and DAX were up 1%, 0.7% and 0.2%. Saudi TASI and UAE’s ADX were up 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Brazil’s Bovespa gained 0.6%. Asia Pacific stocks opened in the red – HSI, Nikkei, Singapore’s STI and Shanghai were down 0.8%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.1%. US 10Y yields dipped to 4bp to 1.19%.

Ping An, Kasikornbank, Mapletree Launch Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; ...

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance. HSBC Holdings operates worldwide.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

Lloyds Banking Group plc, through subsidiaries and associated companies, offers a range of banking and financial services. The Company provides retail banking, mortgages, pensions, asset management, insurance services, corporate banking, and treasury services.

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC operates as a bank. The Bank services includes retail banking and payment services, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management operations solutions. Bank of Georgia Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, Belarus, and Georgia.

Secure Trust Bank PLC accepts deposits and offers retail banking services.  The Company offers automobile and retail point of sale financing, and personal unsecured lending.

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, UK Private banking, and Group Centre. The company provides private banking services, such as current accounts, deposit accounts, loans, overdrafts, and foreign exchange services; wealth planning services comprising estate and tax planning, pensions, and wealth preservation and generation; and discretionary investment management services, including asset management and developing tailored investment strategies. It also offers retail banking products and services, such as savings and current accounts; consumer finance products in motor finance, retail finance, and unsecured personal lending areas; and SME?s funding for asset finance, invoice finance, and real estate finance. In addition, the company offers commercial banking services comprising financing and cash transaction requirements of SMEs, as well as household cash management and insurance services. Further, the company offers leasing, debt collection, and property rental and management services. Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, leasing, credit cards, and consumer finance.  The Company operates through physical stores, the Internet and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally.

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Hang Seng Index, Tencent, HSBC, HKEX, and Alibaba

After last week's Bear Porn note, this explains best the focus of the note. We have a critical few weeks ahead of us as we open with a gap down on...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Hang Seng Index Constituents 6th July 2022

The gap down on Wednesday in a few sectors and stocks got my attention as there was a bearish setup before today's trading day.

Untying The Gordian Knot

6 New Deals incl. HSBC, Temasek, Wespac; Macro; Rating Changes; Talking Heads; Top Gainers and Lo...

US equities ended slightly higher with the S&P up 0.7% and Nasdaq up 1%. Sectoral gains were led by Communication Services and IT, up 1.7% and...

BondEvalue

Ping An, Kasikornbank, Mapletree Launch Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; ...

US markets ended the day mixed with the S&P down 0.2% and Nasdaq up 0.1%. Materials and Industrials, down 1.2% and 0.7% dragged the index while...

BondEvalue

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