Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  
The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 17 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> is best placed to be the replacement.</li>
<li>There are stocks that are close on the heels of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) will replace United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 17 October.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and Boss Resources (BOE AU) is best placed to be the replacement.
There are stocks that are close on the heels of Boss Resources (BOE AU) and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

<ul>
<li>Privatisations could lead to two/three <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.</li>
<li>Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


Privatisations could lead to two/three S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.
Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in December.
The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.</li>
<li>That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.</li>
<li>There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that are constituents of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices and could go private or merge prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.
That will lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and could also lead to ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 and S&amp;P/ASX 100 indices.
There is a fair amount of short interest on some of the potential inclusions and short covering due to index inclusion could take the stocks higher.


Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

Australia

Boss Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores and develops uranium and base metal projects. Boss Resources serves customers in Namibia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Boss Energy (BOE AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

I expect Boss Resources (BOE AU) to replace Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) at the close of 3rd November 2023. There could be 17.6mn shares to buy in BOE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

LNW replaces UMG in the ASX200 tomorrow. BOE could replace IVC at the close on 3 Nov. There could be more ad hoc changes in Nov/early Dec. That...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

I expect Boss Resources (BOE AU) to replace Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) at the close of 3rd November 2023. There could be 17.6mn shares to buy in BOE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

LNW replaces UMG in the ASX200 tomorrow. BOE could replace IVC at the close on 3 Nov. There could be more ad hoc changes in Nov/early Dec. That...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

Mergers, Acquisitions and Potential S&P/ASX Index Ad Hoc Inclusions

There are 5 companies that are members of the S&P/ASX indices and could be delisted prior to the next rebalance in December. That could mean ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December