Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Cyberspace Administration of China set new rules requiring platform companies with data on more than one million users to undergo a security review before listing their shares overseas.</li>
<li>Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer was last week ordered to demolish 39 buildings of its flagship property project on Ocean Islands, for breaching building approval procedures.</li>
<li>After a spike in Covid cases, China’s tough lockdown of the city of Xi’an has confined 13 million people to their homes and shuttered businesses.</li>
</ul>


The Cyberspace Administration of China set new rules requiring platform companies with data on more than one million users to undergo a security review before listing their shares overseas.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer was last week ordered to demolish 39 buildings of its flagship property project on Ocean Islands, for breaching building approval procedures.
After a spike in Covid cases, China’s tough lockdown of the city of Xi’an has confined 13 million people to their homes and shuttered businesses.


Cybersecurity/ Evergrande/ Covid/ Environment/ Hong Kong

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/yuzhou-group-holdings-company-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yuzhou Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Agile Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/central-china-real-estate-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Central China Real Estate</a></li><li><a href='/entities/logan-property-holdings-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Logan Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/times-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Times China</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Yuzhou GroupAgile Property HoldingsCentral China Real EstateLogan Property HoldingsTimes Chinaand more...

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Bad To Worse:Under mainland China’s real estate development law, the government has the right to repossess idle land sold to any developer without compensation;</li>
<li>
Demolition Man: Danzhou City is now in on the act, forcing China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] to demolish 39 buildings for various violations; and</li>
<li>
Banks To Eat This As Well: Without any compensation to Evergrande, mainland Chinese banks no doubt will finally be writing down their exposure on Evergrande's now non-existent buildings.</li>
</ul>



Bad To Worse:Under mainland China’s real estate development law, the government has the right to repossess idle land sold to any developer without compensation;

Demolition Man: Danzhou City is now in on the act, forcing China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] to demolish 39 buildings for various violations; and

Banks To Eat This As Well: Without any compensation to Evergrande, mainland Chinese banks no doubt will finally be writing down their exposure on Evergrande's now non-existent buildings.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. The headcount test is a key challenge as some minorities voice displeasure over the price.  </li>
<li>Based on the unaffected price of HK$1.81 and at the last close of HK$2.30, the deal probability retouched lows of 48.5%. A 65% deal probability would imply HK$2.47 per share. </li>
<li>In the event of a failed deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>’s strong fundamentals provide solid valuation support. Our SoTP valuation is HK$2.96 per share, 5% higher than the privatisation price.</li>
</ul>


The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. The headcount test is a key challenge as some minorities voice displeasure over the price.  
Based on the unaffected price of HK$1.81 and at the last close of HK$2.30, the deal probability retouched lows of 48.5%. A 65% deal probability would imply HK$2.47 per share. 
In the event of a failed deal, Razer Inc (1337 HK)’s strong fundamentals provide solid valuation support. Our SoTP valuation is HK$2.96 per share, 5% higher than the privatisation price.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> ended on 31 December. The changes will be announced on 18 February and implemented on 4 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> is a potential inclusion, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> though both names are very close to the cutoffs.</li>
<li>Changes in the free-float adjustment factors could result in no change to the index, while there is an outside chance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> being included in the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ended on 31 December. The changes will be announced on 18 February and implemented on 4 March.

Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) is a potential inclusion, replacing Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) though both names are very close to the cutoffs.
Changes in the free-float adjustment factors could result in no change to the index, while there is an outside chance of Bilibili (9626 HK) being included in the index.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): One Potential Change with Caveats

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

Price Gauge
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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Cybersecurity/ Evergrande/ Covid/ Environment/ Hong Kong

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Weekly Wrap - 07 Jan 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande Group – Razing Cain

EVERGRANDE: Danzhou City is forcing Evergrande to demolish 39 buildings for various violations. Mainland Chinese banks no doubt will write down...

Thomas J. Monaco

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. In the event of a failed deal, the strong fundamentals provide solid...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): One Potential Change with Caveats

Xinyi Solar could replace Evergrande Property Services in the HSCEI at the March rebalance. Changes in the FAF for the stocks could either mean no...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cybersecurity/ Evergrande/ Covid/ Environment/ Hong Kong

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Weekly Wrap - 07 Jan 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande Group – Razing Cain

EVERGRANDE: Danzhou City is forcing Evergrande to demolish 39 buildings for various violations. Mainland Chinese banks no doubt will write down...

Thomas J. Monaco

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/​Reward

The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. In the event of a failed deal, the strong fundamentals provide solid...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): One Potential Change with Caveats

Xinyi Solar could replace Evergrande Property Services in the HSCEI at the March rebalance. Changes in the FAF for the stocks could either mean no...

Brian Freitas

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward