Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. </li>
<li>This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.</li>
<li>The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.</li>
</ul>


With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. 
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.


Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP)'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Positives - Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint

<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


Japan

KOBE BUSSAN CO., LTD. is a supermarket franchise store operator which mainly deals in foods stuffs.  The Company also has direct-run stores.

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Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - The Positives - Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint

Trial Holdings (5882 JP)'s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

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