Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.</li>
<li>The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank</li>
<li>Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank
Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 26th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tracker Fund, AIA, Hisense Ha, China Res Beer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 26th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tracker Fund, AIA, Hisense Ha, China Res Beer.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tracker Fund, AIA, Hisense Ha, China Res Beer

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND net flows this past week were lower than has been the case in past weeks, but were positive every day, and have been positive 23 weeks...

Travis Lundy

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

GEM Banks; Conviction Calls for 2023

Our core buys are Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have special mention for Banco Itau and Nubank;...

Victor Galliano

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tracker Fund, AIA, Hisense Ha, China Res Beer

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 26th and highlight short interest changes in Tracker Fund, AIA, Hisense...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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