Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We do not forecast any constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks.</li>
<li>Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 7.6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$2.4bn. 17 stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> will have the largest inflow while there will be big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We do not forecast any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks.
Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 7.6% leading to a round-trip trade of US$2.4bn. 17 stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Li Auto (2015 HK) will have the largest inflow while there will be big outflows from Meituan (3690 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. </li>
<li>Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.</li>
<li>A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government's announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK) announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. 
Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.
A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government's announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).


JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.</li>
<li>New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA</li>
<li>Updated JD.com general status from last week's China/Japan Note encouraging.</li>
</ul>


Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
Updated JD.com general status from last week's China/Japan Note encouraging.


Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

In Q1 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects.

In Q1 2021, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects. 

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;</li>
<li>But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;</li>
<li>We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.</li>
</ul>


We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;
But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn't run counter to the communique;
We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.


The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks. Li Auto is the big buy; there...

Brian Freitas

International Automobile Analysis

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Douglas Busch

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

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Jason Yap, CFA

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$2.4bn in June

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH in June but there could be capping changes for 7 stocks. Li Auto is the big buy; there...

Brian Freitas

JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK): Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

JD.com will report 1Q24 results on May 16. Take advantage of the improving Hong Kong stock market sentiment, which should most immediately benefit...

Steve Zhou, CFA

International Automobile Analysis

China markets showing excellent resilience and could be a good sign for the global economy. Automobile plays that may benefit.

Douglas Busch

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

JD has at times revised disclosures possibly to conceal growth or margin weakness. We discuss how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a...

Jason Yap, CFA

The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique

​The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The communique of CCP's 3rd Plenum of the 20th CC has pressed forward with tough reforms in the next five years. While timing is quite bad, it...