Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Inflation Expectations are Too Low - As they rise in coming weeks we would expect more volatility and renewed focus on Emerging Markets<ul>
<li>United States: Important jobs and consumer sentiment data next week could drive more volatility. Watch for signs of rising inflation expectations.</li>
<li>India: The CPI in January increased 5.07% vs. 5.21% in December. Watch for growth data next week</li>
<li>Brazil: Zuma has resigned and Ramaphosa has been elected interim president until new elections are held next year…</li>
</ul>

Inflation Expectations are Too Low - As they rise in coming weeks we would expect more volatility and renewed focus on Emerging Markets
United States: Important jobs and consumer sentiment data next week could drive more volatility. Watch for signs of rising inflation expectations.
India: The CPI in January increased 5.07% vs. 5.21% in December. Watch for growth data next week
Brazil: Zuma has resigned and Ramaphosa has been elected interim president until new elections are held next year…


Riedel Research Global Macro - Inflation Expectations Are Too Low - Expect Renewed Focus on EM

Supply Expansion from US Shale, Mexico Drilling and non-OPEC Supply Could Bring Low Oil Prices in Coming Years - What are the political implications?<ul>
<li>Russia: Sales of new cars in Russia increased 31.3% y/y in January 2018. Good growth numbers and low inflation. </li>
<li>South Africa: Political turmoil surrounding President Zuma is intensifying but has little impact on the economy. Strong business confidence index reflects that.</li>
<li>Brazil: Banco do Brazil cut its key Selic rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% on 7…</li>
</ul>

Supply Expansion from US Shale, Mexico Drilling and non-OPEC Supply Could Bring Low Oil Prices in Coming Years - What are the political implications?
Russia: Sales of new cars in Russia increased 31.3% y/y in January 2018. Good growth numbers and low inflation. 
South Africa: Political turmoil surrounding President Zuma is intensifying but has little impact on the economy. Strong business confidence index reflects that.
Brazil: Banco do Brazil cut its key Selic rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% on 7…


Riedel Research Global Macro - What Is the Longer-Term Geopolitical Impact of Low Oil Prices?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our melt up call. Increasing evidence points to the USD reaching a terminal low at some point in late Q1 that will produce initial headwinds for Asian and EM equities but will mount into the summer months. Weaker EM FX is the most vulnerable in Q2 (TRY, BRL, PHP, SGD and even a USD/THB low).DXY cycle overlap with a pending exhaustive equity cycle lays out a…

We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our melt up call. Increasing evidence points to the USD reaching a terminal low at some point in late Q1 that will produce initial headwinds for Asian and EM equities but will mount into the summer months. Weaker EM FX is the most vulnerable in Q2 (TRY, BRL, PHP, SGD and even a USD/THB low).DXY cycle overlap with a pending exhaustive equity cycle lays out a…

Q1 USD Low to Front Run Q2 EEM Correction

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Riedel Research Global Macro - Inflation Expectations Are Too Low - Expect Renewed Focus on EM

Inflation Expectations are Too Low - As they rise in coming weeks we would expect more volatility and renewed focus on Emerging Markets United...

David Riedel

Riedel Research Global Macro - What Is the Longer-Term Geopolitical Impact of Low Oil Prices?

Supply Expansion from US Shale, Mexico Drilling and non-OPEC Supply Could Bring Low Oil Prices in Coming Years - What are the political...

David Riedel

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global...

Steven Holden

Q1 USD Low to Front Run Q2 EEM Correction

We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our...

Thomas Schroeder