Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.</div>• The average Philippines allocation among the 180 global EM managers in our analysis stands at just 0.8%, far off their highs of 2.14% back in early 2015. Only 58% of GEM funds hold any exposure to the Philippines.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/066/original/smart1.png?1532646791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59066"></figure>• <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/131" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:131:1">Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM)</a> is the most widely held stock though stands as a small underweight on average.  Most stocks are held by only a small number of GEM funds.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/067/original/smart2.png?1532647076" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59067"></figure>• Over the…

Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.• The average Philippines allocation among the 180 global EM managers in our analysis stands at just 0.8%, far off their highs of 2.14% back in early 2015. Only 58% of GEM funds hold any exposure to the Philippines.• Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) is the most widely held stock though stands as a small underweight on average.  Most stocks are held by only a small number of GEM funds.• Over the…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira.</li>
<li>Brazil: IMF experts visited last week and seem set to ratchet down GDP expectations for 2018.  They are looking for GDP of just 1.8 for 2018 - much lower than the 2.3% they were expecting as recently as May.</li>
<li>Indonesia: Doubts rise about hitting 5.3% GDP growth for 2018 as challenges mount. Weak lira, higher rates and political divisions could hurt 2018 - We will focus on 2019 for growth…</li>
</ul>


Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira.
Brazil: IMF experts visited last week and seem set to ratchet down GDP expectations for 2018.  They are looking for GDP of just 1.8 for 2018 - much lower than the 2.3% they were expecting as recently as May.
Indonesia: Doubts rise about hitting 5.3% GDP growth for 2018 as challenges mount. Weak lira, higher rates and political divisions could hurt 2018 - We will focus on 2019 for growth…


RRG Global Macro - Inflation Continues to Rise - Trade War Won't Help - Opportunities in EM

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

<h2>EM Investors Reduce China Underweight</h2>Global EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China.  Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds shows average China &amp; HK allocations at their highest ever levels of 27.9%, with underweights reducing by 1.7% from a low of 5.37% (post-2016 US-Listed China index inclusions) to -3.66% today.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/056/281/original/Picture1.png?1530173899" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="56281"></figure>As further evidence of this active weight increase, the chart below shows the percentage of GEM funds overweight China &amp; HK versus the EEM Index* increase…

EM Investors Reduce China UnderweightGlobal EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China.  Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds shows average China &amp; HK allocations at their highest ever levels of 27.9%, with underweights reducing by 1.7% from a low of 5.37% (post-2016 US-Listed China index inclusions) to -3.66% today.  As further evidence of this active weight increase, the chart below shows the percentage of GEM funds overweight China &amp; HK versus the EEM Index* increase…

EM Investors Reduce China Underweight - Take Out the B.A.Ts and They Are Overweight!

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Philippines: Drifting in to Oblivion

Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.• The average Philippines allocation...

Steven Holden

RRG Global Macro - Inflation Continues to Rise - Trade War Won't Help - Opportunities in EM

Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira. Brazil: IMF experts visited last week...

David Riedel

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Investors Reduce China Underweight - Take Out the B.A.Ts and They Are Overweight!

EM Investors Reduce China UnderweightGlobal EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China. Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds...

Steven Holden

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact...

Thomas Schroeder