Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) ordered app stores in China to remove Didi's app for the illegal collection and use of personal data.  This comes after the CAC announcing a cybersecurity review of Didi.   </p><p>The regulatory investigations are not just limited to Didi.  The CAC also opened a cybersecurity probe into the recent US-listed Chinese online recruiter Boss Zhipin and subsidiaries of Full Truck Alliance (both backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> ). </p><p>The removal of the Didi app from app stores is concerning as this could have a direct impact on new user and driver acquisitions, and thus impacting its revenue, which is a key driver for the company's valuation.  Didi's China Mobility business had 337 million annual active users (AAU) and 156 monthly active users (MAU) generating 25 million average daily transactions at the March quarter. </p><p>I am cautious on Didi because of its rich valuation, risks related to its bike-sharing business, and regulatory and business risks.  Please see my last insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-didi-us-avoid-buyers-remorse-do-an-apples-to-apples-comparison" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53823" rel="noopener">Didi Chuxing (DIDI US): Avoid Buyers' Remorse - Do an Apples to Apples Comparison,</a> for discussions on valuations. </p>

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) ordered app stores in China to remove Didi's app for the illegal collection and use of personal data.  This comes after the CAC announcing a cybersecurity review of Didi.   The regulatory investigations are not just limited to Didi.  The CAC also opened a cybersecurity probe into the recent US-listed Chinese online recruiter Boss Zhipin and subsidiaries of Full Truck Alliance (both backed by Tencent (700 HK) ). The removal of the Didi app from app stores is concerning as this could have a direct impact on new user and driver acquisitions, and thus impacting its revenue, which is a key driver for the company's valuation.  Didi's China Mobility business had 337 million annual active users (AAU) and 156 monthly active users (MAU) generating 25 million average daily transactions at the March quarter. I am cautious on Didi because of its rich valuation, risks related to its bike-sharing business, and regulatory and business risks.  Please see my last insight, Didi Chuxing (DIDI US): Avoid Buyers' Remorse - Do an Apples to Apples Comparison, for discussions on valuations. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a>, the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, along with other investors.</p>
<p>While the company has been at the receiving end of regulatory oversight before, the announcements over the past few days have come at unusual velocity. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.</p>
</div><div><p>We have covered the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-one-of-asia-s-largest-ipos-this-year-tearsheet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-has-a-principal-agent-problem-rumoured-target-valuation-is-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-pre-ipo-competitive-in-car-hailing-uncompetitive-in-others-generally-valuable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-pre-ipo-bull-case-index-inclusion-uber-exit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-ipo-at-fair-value-with-partial-lock-up-and-index-inclusion-pulling-it-either-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-ipo-trading-upsize-will-ensures-index-inclusion-lock-up-remains-a-wildcard" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing IPO Trading - Upsize Will Ensures Index Inclusion, Lock-Up Remains a Wildcard</a></li>
</ul></div>


DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. It is backed by Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Tencent (700 HK), along with other investors.
While the company has been at the receiving end of regulatory oversight before, the announcements over the past few days have come at unusual velocity. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates.
We have covered the deal background and financials overview in our previous notes:

DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - One of Asia’s Largest IPOs This Year - Tearsheet.
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Has a Principal Agent Problem, Rumoured Target Valuation Is a Stretch
DIDI (滴滴) Pre-IPO: Competitive in Car Hailing, Uncompetitive In “Others”, Generally Valuable
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Valuation
DiDi Chuxing Pre-IPO - Bull Case, Index Inclusion, Uber Exit
DiDi Chuxing IPO - At Fair Value, with Partial Lock-Up and Index Inclusion Pulling It Either Way
DiDi Chuxing IPO Trading - Upsize Will Ensures Index Inclusion, Lock-Up Remains a Wildcard


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Softbank will be able to report a positive Q1 contribution from public companies in the Vision Fund portfolio thanks to five new listings and some amazing quarter-end moves for Dingdong Maicai, Full Truck Alliance and Coupang. All in, we estimate public VF companies ended the quarter up $1.1bn after mid-quarter losses that had been as high as $12bn. New listings were a big help surfacing almost $6bn in value, enough to offset c. $5bn in valuation losses for the existing portfolio. It is worth noting that the underlying value of Softbank shares is at all-time highs as VF liquidity offsets recent Alibaba weakness. That is less apparent in the share price as the discount has expanded to 45% from &lt;30% when the company announced its full-year results in May.</p>

Softbank will be able to report a positive Q1 contribution from public companies in the Vision Fund portfolio thanks to five new listings and some amazing quarter-end moves for Dingdong Maicai, Full Truck Alliance and Coupang. All in, we estimate public VF companies ended the quarter up $1.1bn after mid-quarter losses that had been as high as $12bn. New listings were a big help surfacing almost $6bn in value, enough to offset c. $5bn in valuation losses for the existing portfolio. It is worth noting that the underlying value of Softbank shares is at all-time highs as VF liquidity offsets recent Alibaba weakness. That is less apparent in the share price as the discount has expanded to 45% from &lt;30% when the company announced its full-year results in May.

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Public Companies on Wild Ride to End Quarter in the Black

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The <em>DiDi Chuxing</em> app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (12.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> (6.8%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>. </p><p>Didi has priced its IPO at $14.00 per ADS, which is at the top-end of the IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/chinas-didi-raises-4-billion-us-ipo-source-2021-06-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Reuters</a>. Reuters also noted that Didi sold a higher 317 million ADS versus the planned 288 million ADS (10% more), resulting in a fully-diluted market cap of $73 billion ($67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis).</p><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-chuxing-xiaoju-kuaizhi-initiation-in-for-a-bumpy-ride" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53014" rel="noopener">Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?</a>, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xiaoju-kuaizhi-didi-chuxing-ipo-growth-vs-margin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53232" rel="noopener">Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin</a>, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lyft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1" rel="noopener">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>. Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/didi-global-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53626" rel="noopener">DiDi Global IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the proposed IPO valuation is materially below the previously rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. In combination with our SoTP valuation, we opined that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our relative valuation suggests that the IPO price is full. Updating for the final IPO raise and the latest peer multiples, our SoTP valuation is $13.54 per ADS, which is marginally below the IPO price of $14 per ADS. Consequently, we would take profits on any meaningful first day IPO pop.</p></div>
</div>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) is the world's largest mobility technology platform by annual active users and by average daily transactions for the twelve months ended 31 March 2021, according to CIC. The DiDi Chuxing app in China where consumers can access mobility and other essential services. Didi is backed by Softbank Vision Fund (21.5% stake), Uber (UBER US) (12.8%), Tencent (700 HK) (6.8%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP). Didi has priced its IPO at $14.00 per ADS, which is at the top-end of the IPO price range of $13.00-14.00 per ADS, according to Reuters. Reuters also noted that Didi sold a higher 317 million ADS versus the planned 288 million ADS (10% more), resulting in a fully-diluted market cap of $73 billion ($67.5 billion on a non-diluted basis).In Didi Chuxing (Xiaoju Kuaizhi) Initiation: In for a Bumpy Ride?, we opined that Didi’s core china mobility business is heading on the right trajectory with rising growth and improving margin. However, Didi is saddled with two other businesses (international and other initiatives) which are driven by its global ambitions and its desire to provide a broad array of service offerings to consumers and drivers. This ecosystem strategy is sensible for a company that possesses a highly profitable and cash generative core business. Unfortunately, Didi’s core china mobility business is not close to achieving this status and the international and other initiatives business look like unnecessary and costly distractions. 
In Xiaoju Kuaizhi (Didi Chuxing) IPO: Growth Vs Margin, we examined the key financial metrics of Didi china mobility and international business to the relevant business units of its peers - Uber, Lyft Inc (LYFT US) and Grab (0967655D SP). Our analysis showed that Didi offered a trade-off between growth and profitability in comparison to its peers. We concluded that in combination with the ongoing regulatory overhang, we are inclined to remain on the sidelines.
In DiDi Global IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the proposed IPO valuation is materially below the previously rumoured top-end valuation of $100 billion. In combination with our SoTP valuation, we opined that Didi is fairly valued at the IPO price range.   
Our relative valuation suggests that the IPO price is full. Updating for the final IPO raise and the latest peer multiples, our SoTP valuation is $13.54 per ADS, which is marginally below the IPO price of $14 per ADS. Consequently, we would take profits on any meaningful first day IPO pop.


<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> raised USD4.4 billion today, pricing the IPO at the top of its indicated range and selling more shares than initially planned, according to Reuters.  This constitutes a USD67.5 billion valuation on a non-diluted basis and USD73 billion fully diluted. </p><p>While this IPO was well oversubscribed, there are 3 reasons why I would be cautious on the stock:</p><ol>
<li>Why should I be overjoyed at receiving my IPO allotment when I am paying a 31% premium to Uber and 47% to Lyft on FY21 EV/Sales even though they are expected to grow faster than Didi?  </li>
<li>Didi appears to be cheap by using EV/sales, but not so if platform revenue is used.  Uber and Lyft’s revenues are net of payments to drivers.  Using Didi's platform revenue multiple, its IPO price is not so cheap.  </li>
<li>Didi’s gross transaction value (GTV) per transaction is only 27% of Uber’s. Why?  Because taxi fare in Beijing is 75% cheaper than NYC’s rate.  Uber’s GTV in 1Q21 was USD19.5 bn, Didi’s USD1.2 bn. <strong>Didi’s market cap on a fully diluted basis is USD73 bn, Uber USD95 bn</strong>.</li>
</ol>

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) raised USD4.4 billion today, pricing the IPO at the top of its indicated range and selling more shares than initially planned, according to Reuters.  This constitutes a USD67.5 billion valuation on a non-diluted basis and USD73 billion fully diluted. While this IPO was well oversubscribed, there are 3 reasons why I would be cautious on the stock:
Why should I be overjoyed at receiving my IPO allotment when I am paying a 31% premium to Uber and 47% to Lyft on FY21 EV/Sales even though they are expected to grow faster than Didi?  
Didi appears to be cheap by using EV/sales, but not so if platform revenue is used.  Uber and Lyft’s revenues are net of payments to drivers.  Using Didi's platform revenue multiple, its IPO price is not so cheap.  
Didi’s gross transaction value (GTV) per transaction is only 27% of Uber’s. Why?  Because taxi fare in Beijing is 75% cheaper than NYC’s rate.  Uber’s GTV in 1Q21 was USD19.5 bn, Didi’s USD1.2 bn. Didi’s market cap on a fully diluted basis is USD73 bn, Uber USD95 bn.


Didi Chuxing (DIDI US): Avoid Buyers' Remorse - Do an Apples to Apples Comparison

United States

Uber Technologies Inc provides ride hailing services. The Company develops applications for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. Uber Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Uber Technologies (UBER US)

DIDI US: Regulatory Risk on the Rise

The CAC ordered app stores in China to remove Didi's app for the illegal collection and use of personal data. With rich valuations and regulatory...

Mitchell Kim

DiDi Chuxing - Double Regulatory Whammy

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US), the world’s largest mobility technology platform, raised around US$4.4bn in its US listing. The company has been at the...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Public Companies on Wild Ride to End Quarter in the Black

Vision Fund's portfolio moved into the black for Q1 thanks to IPOs and some amazing qtr-end moves by a few VF stocks. Report includes updated...

Kirk Boodry

DiDi Global IPO: Trading Debut

Didi has priced its IPO at $14 per ADS and sold 10% more ADSs than planned. Our relative valuation and SoTP valuation suggests a full price. We...

Arun George

Didi Chuxing (DIDI US): Avoid Buyers' Remorse - Do an Apples to Apples Comparison

DiDi IPO raised USD4.4 bn today, pricing at the top of its indicated range and selling more shares than initially planned. I offer three reasons...

Mitchell Kim

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