Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> shares have fallen 46% since 31 March v a 52% decline for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> with little daylight between the two since August</li>
<li>That reflects fading influence from Vision Fund which is shed $12bn in value Q4 to date and c. $30bn this fiscal year.</li>
<li>The discount remains in the 50% range as tailwinds from the share buyback depend on a successful IPO of ARM, where the magnitude and timing remain uncertain</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) shares have fallen 46% since 31 March v a 52% decline for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) with little daylight between the two since August
That reflects fading influence from Vision Fund which is shed $12bn in value Q4 to date and c. $30bn this fiscal year.
The discount remains in the 50% range as tailwinds from the share buyback depend on a successful IPO of ARM, where the magnitude and timing remain uncertain


Softbank Group - Alibaba Remains the Key Share Price Driver as VF Diversification Stalls

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.</li>
<li>While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.</li>
<li>These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Convenience stores are bouncing back after a difficult 18 months, aided by efforts to find new ways to meet demand for home deliveries.
While conbini are ideally placed to do this, their less flexible business model means that competitors like food delivery companies are making the first moves.
These firms are already setting up dark stores for local deliveries and could grow into a new form of competition for convenience stores and local supermarkets.


Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Grab made its public debut on NASDAQ on 02nd of December. The company’s shares are currently trading at US$6.79 per share compared to US$13.06 per apiece at the open.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, several news media outlets reported that Grab has agreed to buy the Malaysian grocery chain Jaya Grocer to tap into the booming online groceries business in the region.</li>
<li>Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry of a large number of Grab’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Grab made its public debut on NASDAQ on 02nd of December. The company’s shares are currently trading at US$6.79 per share compared to US$13.06 per apiece at the open.
On Tuesday, several news media outlets reported that Grab has agreed to buy the Malaysian grocery chain Jaya Grocer to tap into the booming online groceries business in the region.
Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry of a large number of Grab’s shares.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Full Truck Alliance   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier IPO notes, links to which are included below.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the updates since listing and the impact of the upcoming lock-up expiry.</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier IPO notes, links to which are included below.
In this note, we look at the updates since listing and the impact of the upcoming lock-up expiry.


Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Dec 2021, Didi announced that it would look to delist its ADRs from NYSE and it would seek a listing on HKSE.</li>
<li>The stock has been at the center of a regulatory crackdown since its IPO in Jun 2021. </li>
<li>Apart from the delisting and relisting flows, it now also has US$20bn of stock coming up for lock-up expiry.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Dec 2021, Didi announced that it would look to delist its ADRs from NYSE and it would seek a listing on HKSE.
The stock has been at the center of a regulatory crackdown since its IPO in Jun 2021. 
Apart from the delisting and relisting flows, it now also has US$20bn of stock coming up for lock-up expiry.


DiDi Chuxing: Delisting - Relisting + US$20bn Lockup Expiry = Big Mess

United States

Uber Technologies Inc provides ride hailing services. The Company develops applications for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. Uber Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Uber Technologies (UBER US)

Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Food delivery is evolving fast in Japan but not just for takeaways. Local delivery of essentials by food delivery firms is becoming a new source of...

Michael Causton

Grab SPAC: What Is Next?

Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21....

Sumeet Singh

DiDi Chuxing: Delisting - Relisting + US$20bn Lockup Expiry = Big Mess

On 2nd Dec 2021, Didi announced that it would look to delist its ADRs from NYSE and it would seek a listing on HKSE. The company also has US$20bn...

Sumeet Singh

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Softbank Group - Alibaba Remains the Key Share Price Driver as VF Diversification Stalls

Vision Fund, ARM and buybacks have grabbed headlines but Alibaba's share price has been the best predictor for Softbank's value, particularly over...

Kirk Boodry

Home Delivery Next Evolution for Japan's Conbini Sector?

Food delivery is evolving fast in Japan but not just for takeaways. Local delivery of essentials by food delivery firms is becoming a new source of...

Michael Causton

Grab SPAC: What Is Next?

Our revised SOTP valuation offers significant upside to Grab’s current share price but we would caution investors about the upcoming lock-up expiry...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21....

Sumeet Singh

DiDi Chuxing: Delisting - Relisting + US$20bn Lockup Expiry = Big Mess

On 2nd Dec 2021, Didi announced that it would look to delist its ADRs from NYSE and it would seek a listing on HKSE. The company also has US$20bn...

Sumeet Singh