Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on March 12, 2021, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its 4Q20/full year  results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 33% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – declining on a linked quarter basis, due largely to weaker volumes and margins.AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales;  and *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well.

*Another Poor Set Of Results Expected: Pre-market on March 12, 2021, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] is set to release its 4Q20/full year  results. By our calculation, AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) is expected to decline 33% YOY on a constant exchange rate basis – declining on a linked quarter basis, due largely to weaker volumes and margins.AIA’s product mix remains sub-optimal with the single premium product remaining the focus due to the COVID-19 impact on face-to-face agency sales;  and *No Hong Kong Rebound In Sight: The focus should remain Hong Kong, where a 60% plus YOY decline in VONB would not be out of the question as its border with mainland China continued to remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. This should continue to weigh on results over the next few quarters as well. 

AIA Group – 4Q Results Likely To Remain Very Challenging

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.
<div class="content-highlight">
What's Original?
<ul>
<li>We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.</li>
<li>Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Insight Flow</h3>
<ul>
<li>Live Dashboard</li>
<li> Methodology
<ul>
<li>Philosophy</li>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Universe</li>
<li>Back Test Results
<ul>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Results
<ul>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Risks &amp; Limitations</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.

What's Original?

We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.
Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.
For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.
For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.


Insight Flow

Live Dashboard
 Methodology

Philosophy
Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Universe
Back Test Results

Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Model Results

Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise
Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut


Model Risks &amp; Limitations
Conclusion


Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

<ul>
<li>
FY 2020 Margin Downgrade:Insurance Australia (IAG.AU) cut its FY 2020 insurance margin guidance range to between 14.5%-16.5% from 16%-18% due to the AUD 169 mn claims net loss from the recent hailstorm event. </li>
<li>
Fooling With the Dividend: 1H20 results are expected to include an AUD 80 mn net post-tax provision for discounts that were not completely applied in full that date back to 2014. IAG will exclude this from net profit after tax (which we anticipate would be down close to 20% if included) when calculating its dividend. Seemingly, along with the bush fires, a dividend cut is more in order.</li>
<li>
Underestimate of Bush Fire Cost Likely: As the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage, IAG has provided a risk assessment despite the fact that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe - and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. </li>
</ul>



FY 2020 Margin Downgrade:Insurance Australia (IAG.AU) cut its FY 2020 insurance margin guidance range to between 14.5%-16.5% from 16%-18% due to the AUD 169 mn claims net loss from the recent hailstorm event. 

Fooling With the Dividend: 1H20 results are expected to include an AUD 80 mn net post-tax provision for discounts that were not completely applied in full that date back to 2014. IAG will exclude this from net profit after tax (which we anticipate would be down close to 20% if included) when calculating its dividend. Seemingly, along with the bush fires, a dividend cut is more in order.

Underestimate of Bush Fire Cost Likely: As the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage, IAG has provided a risk assessment despite the fact that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe - and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. 


Insurance Australia Group - Margin Guidance Cut

<ul>
<li>FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an update on its expected natural peril cost.</li>
<li>We have little confidence in IAG’s risk assessment given both that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. </li>
<li> IAG estimates that natural perils costs will be approximately AUD 400 mn post quota share, compared to a perils allowance of AUD 320 mn for 1H20 (FY 2020 allowance of AUD 641 mn).</li>
</ul>


FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an update on its expected natural peril cost.
We have little confidence in IAG’s risk assessment given both that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for this catastrophe and that by all measures California has yet to finalize the cost on their own deadly and yet less horrific fires. 
 IAG estimates that natural perils costs will be approximately AUD 400 mn post quota share, compared to a perils allowance of AUD 320 mn for 1H20 (FY 2020 allowance of AUD 641 mn).


Insurance Australia Group – The CAT Is Out of the Bag

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

AIA Group – 4Q Results Likely To Remain Very Challenging

AIA GROUP: Pre-market on March 12th, AIA is to release 4Q20/full year results. AIA’s overall VONB is expected to decline 33% YOY- due largely to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Pairs Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We look at liquid and large cap pairs from the financials sector that exhibit mean-reversion and are currently trading at or near an extreme based...

Brian Freitas

Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

Methodology Back Test Results Companied

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Insurance Australia Group - Margin Guidance Cut

FY 2020 Margin Downgrade:Insurance Australia (IAG.AU) cut its FY 2020 insurance margin guidance range to between 14.5%-16.5% from 16%-18% due to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Insurance Australia Group – The CAT Is Out of the Bag

FWIW, as the unfortunate wildfires in Australia rage on with weather conditions set to worsen, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) provided an...

Thomas J. Monaco

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