Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a> looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.</li>
<li>One way, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385)</a> are ADDs. Another way, it looks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453)</a>. FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.</li>
</ul>


The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.
One way, Socionext (6526) and Mercari (4385) are ADDs. Another way, it looks like Nitori Holdings (9843) and ZOZO Inc (3092) or Ryohin Keikaku (7453). FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.


Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>’s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. </li>
<li>There are other technical reasons to think it is not. </li>
<li>This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. </li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. 
There are other technical reasons to think it is not. 
This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.</li>
<li>The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  </li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.
The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.



The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is problematic. For the first time under the new rules we have "Serious Rule Interpretation Issues." Then...

Travis Lundy

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

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