Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  CPI slows, Fed Pause narrative strengthens; Yields fall; DXY weakens; Equity rally continues; TSMC Optimism add fuel Semis</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash;  USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally; Foreigners Selling JGBs; Earnings: Seven &amp;I beats; Fasty misses;  We are bullish</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS: Our meme below says it all - we leave it to the experts to breakdown the data but the evidence indicates  INFLATION DEFEATED.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  CPI slows, Fed Pause narrative strengthens; Yields fall; DXY weakens; Equity rally continues; TSMC Optimism add fuel Semis
JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash;  USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally; Foreigners Selling JGBs; Earnings: Seven &amp;I beats; Fasty misses;  We are bullish
DAILY NUGGETS: Our meme below says it all - we leave it to the experts to breakdown the data but the evidence indicates  INFLATION DEFEATED.


Good Morning Japan |Benign CPI; Fed Pause in the Crosshairs - Equities Extend Rally

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +1.3% SOX +1.3%; Optimism on soft inflation print drives stocks; Consumer+Tech lead; Apple to introduce touch screens for Mac; Off-Shore Wind Giant Vesta leads in Europe</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at ¥132.45; Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflatio;  Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL,  Nexon and D/G to Nintendo </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS:  Fast Retailing has raised the bar for corporate Japan with with their wage hikes. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +1.3% SOX +1.3%; Optimism on soft inflation print drives stocks; Consumer+Tech lead; Apple to introduce touch screens for Mac; Off-Shore Wind Giant Vesta leads in Europe
JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at ¥132.45; Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflatio;  Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL,  Nexon and D/G to Nintendo 
DAILY NUGGETS:  Fast Retailing has raised the bar for corporate Japan with with their wage hikes. 


Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues as Optimism Reigns Ahead of CPI Print

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. </li>
<li>There are four ADDs previously discussed: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36668:1" rel="noopener">Sun* (4053 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. 
There are four ADDs previously discussed: Sun* (4053 JP), Appier Group (4180 JP), Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP), and Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP). 
There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.


January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +0.7%  SOX +1.35; Beta rally continues on lower CPI print expectations;  Cyclicals lead 10/11 SPX Sectors positive; MSFT considers $10bn OPEN AI investment; Record Boeing orders in 2022. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% premium to Cash; USDJPY steady ¥132.1; Hot Tokyo CPI print; Big wage hikes at Fast Retail;  Travel - China strikes back; +ve JP Boeing supply chain. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS: Hydrogen - a clean alternative. Japan is set to lead as companies ramp up R&amp;D protection with a view to commercialisation.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +0.7%  SOX +1.35; Beta rally continues on lower CPI print expectations;  Cyclicals lead 10/11 SPX Sectors positive; MSFT considers $10bn OPEN AI investment; Record Boeing orders in 2022. 
JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% premium to Cash; USDJPY steady ¥132.1; Hot Tokyo CPI print; Big wage hikes at Fast Retail;  Travel - China strikes back; +ve JP Boeing supply chain. 
DAILY NUGGETS: Hydrogen - a clean alternative. Japan is set to lead as companies ramp up R&amp;D protection with a view to commercialisation.


Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues on Expectations of Tame CPI Print

<ul>
<li>There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


There are four weeks left to go in the data period for calculating the next Nikkei 225 review for March, likely to be announced ~7 March 2023.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) , and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707) , Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703) 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. Slight underperformance would boost buying impact. The Sep23 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Benign CPI; Fed Pause in the Crosshairs - Equities Extend Rally

INFLATION DEFEATED ! Fed pause next. JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues as Optimism Reigns Ahead of CPI Print

OVERSEAS. Optimism on soft inflation drives stocks. JAPAN: Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflation; Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL, Nexon....

Mark Chadwick

January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

The TOPIX January 2023 FFW trade was announced today. 57 down-weights, 11 FFW up-weights. The Phased Weight Reduction has its second leg. Total to...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues on Expectations of Tame CPI Print

JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% premium to Cash; USDJPY steady ¥132.1; Hot Tokyo CPI print; Big wage hikes at Fast Retail; Travel - China strikes back; +ve...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

One month of data to go for the first March Nikkei 225 review in many, many, years. Oriental Land remains the top impact buy name, and it is quite...

Travis Lundy

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