Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary</h2>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1"></a>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1">Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co</a> has dominated the foundry segment over the past two decades. With revenues of $33 billion in 2017, the company had a 56% share of the foundry market and was over five times the size of its nearest competitor, Globalfoundries. Under the visionary leadership of Morris Chang, TSMC effectively invented the fabless model. Originally mocked by former AMD CEO Gerry Sanders who once famously quipped that “real men own fabs”, the fabless model has evolved into a thriving ecosystem, one which has facilitated the meteoric rise of some of the biggest names in the semiconductor segment including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/969" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1">Qualcomm </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia</a>.  
TSMC’s success has been predicated upon the company's so-called Trinity of Strengths, namely process leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust. In today’s highly competitive foundry landscape, those strengths have never been more significant.
While the smartphone processor business has been central to TSMC's growth in recent years with Apple accounting for some 22% of revenues, the company is well positioned to diversify and benefit from high, secular growth trends in IoT, Automotive and AI acceleration. Even more significantly, TSMC is set to compete for the first time with Intel in the lucrative data center market by virtue of its role in manufacturing server chips for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19009" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1">Advanced Micro Devices</a> and a growing swathe of ARM-based server initiatives lead by none other than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon</a>. 
Between 2006 and 2017, TSMC grew at a CAGR of 9.8% in NT$ terms, easily outpacing growth of both the broader semiconductor segment and its foundry peers. For the period 2019-2022, we model TSMC growing at a slightly lower CAGR of 8.36%, but nonetheless more than double the anticipated CAGR for the semiconductor segment as a whole.

Summary

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co has dominated the foundry segment over the past two decades. With revenues of $33 billion in 2017, the company had a 56% share of the foundry market and was over five times the size of its nearest competitor, Globalfoundries. Under the visionary leadership of Morris Chang, TSMC effectively invented the fabless model. Originally mocked by former AMD CEO Gerry Sanders who once famously quipped that “real men own fabs”, the fabless model has evolved into a thriving ecosystem, one which has facilitated the meteoric rise of some of the biggest names in the semiconductor segment including Apple, Qualcomm and Nvidia.  
TSMC’s success has been predicated upon the company's so-called Trinity of Strengths, namely process leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust. In today’s highly competitive foundry landscape, those strengths have never been more significant.
While the smartphone processor business has been central to TSMC's growth in recent years with Apple accounting for some 22% of revenues, the company is well positioned to diversify and benefit from high, secular growth trends in IoT, Automotive and AI acceleration. Even more significantly, TSMC is set to compete for the first time with Intel in the lucrative data center market by virtue of its role in manufacturing server chips for Advanced Micro Devices and a growing swathe of ARM-based server initiatives lead by none other than Amazon. 
Between 2006 and 2017, TSMC grew at a CAGR of 9.8% in NT$ terms, easily outpacing growth of both the broader semiconductor segment and its foundry peers. For the period 2019-2022, we model TSMC growing at a slightly lower CAGR of 8.36%, but nonetheless more than double the anticipated CAGR for the semiconductor segment as a whole. 

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US "dollar" store chains</li>
<li>In this insight we introduce the "dollar" store concept and share our experiences</li>
<li>We conclude that Temu &amp; SHEIN don't likely view some categories as priorities</li>
</ul>


A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US "dollar" store chains
In this insight we introduce the "dollar" store concept and share our experiences
We conclude that Temu &amp; SHEIN don't likely view some categories as priorities


Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a>, one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH), one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to  US$5bn in its H-share listing.
Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Midea A/H Listing - Early Look - Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).</li>
<li>Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.</li>
<li>In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.</li>
</ul>


Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).
Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.
In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.


US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

As we approach the 5 year anniversary of this SK original on TSMC, I'm quite proud of the how the analysis it contains has stood the test of time....

William Keating

Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

In this insight, we introduce readers to the US "dollar" store concept, then compare our experiences shopping for cheap stuff at Dollar Tree and...

Tracking Traffic

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Midea A/H Listing - Early Look - Probably Raising Acquisition Currency

Midea officially filed for an H-share listing yesterday. As per media reports the company is looking to raise up to US$3bn in Hong Kong.

Sumeet Singh

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

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