Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amazon Netsuper is competing head to head with Rakuten’s online food platform in an online food sector that has grown 80% in four years. </li>
<li>Last month Amazon confirmed that Arcs, one of the largest supermarkets in Japan and the biggest in northern Japan, will join Life, Valor and Seijo Ishii in using its system.</li>
<li>Arcs’ online supermarket was already growing strongly but the tie-up with Amazon will take it to the next level, helping to compete with Aeon and Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Amazon Netsuper is competing head to head with Rakuten’s online food platform in an online food sector that has grown 80% in four years. 
Last month Amazon confirmed that Arcs, one of the largest supermarkets in Japan and the biggest in northern Japan, will join Life, Valor and Seijo Ishii in using its system.
Arcs’ online supermarket was already growing strongly but the tie-up with Amazon will take it to the next level, helping to compete with Aeon and Rakuten.


Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Since its emergence as the technology underpinning Bitcoin over a decade ago, blockchain has captured the imagination of technologists, investors and charlatans in roughly equal measure. Blockchain has been portrayed by its advocates as the solution to some of the most fundamental challenges facing modern-day society including free and fair elections, the protection of identity records and title deeds, supply chain integrity and, of course, enabling all manner of exotic cryptocurrencies. Little wonder then that we experienced a wave of blockchain mania which coincided with a similar level of cryptocurrency mania in late 2017. During that time, companies were adding "Blockchain" to their names and seeing their share prices soar by many multiples within weeks. Just as the crypto bubble burst in early 2018, so too did the blockchain bubble. Share prices of so-called blockchain companies collapsed just as quickly as they had risen. Testifying before a US senate committee in October 2018, professor of economics Nouriel Roubini was scathing in his criticism of blockchain <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Roubini%20Testimony%2010-11-18.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">referring</a> to it as  “The most over-hyped technology ever, no better than a spreadsheet/database”.
 Now, as the dust settles and the mania fades, we witness the emergence of a new class of enterprise-grade blockchain implementations led by the likes Hyperledger, Corda and various customisations of Ethereum. While the blockchain technologies supporting the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum are public in so far as the data they contain is accessible by anybody who wishes to view it, these enterprise blockchain implementations are private, a necessary prerequisite for their potential deployment at major corporations and financial institutions. This distinction, along with a number of other important differences, means that enterprise blockchain represents a significant departure from the original public blockchain concept.
Today, enterprise blockchain is being deployed to tackle challenges across a swathe of verticals thanks to the likes of the Big Four consulting firms striving to position it at the heart of their business process reengineering practices. From Maersk to Walmart, they are convincing some of the world's biggest conglomerates to tackle age-old issues relating to outdated, inefficient, labor intensive business practices, all in the name of  blockchain.
It's not just the Big Four that are cashing in on enterprise blockchain. Professional services firm Accenture is investing heavily in its blockchain consulting practice. Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) solutions are available from enterprise software giants <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-business-machines-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1064:1" rel="noopener">Intl Business Machines</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1065:1" rel="noopener">Oracle</a>,  <a href="https://www.sap.com/hk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft </a>and more recently from China’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel </a>wants to ensure that enterprise blockchains runs best on its servers while Microsoft and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon </a>want to host them on their clouds. It's little surprise then that enterprise and government spending on blockchain is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2019, an increase of 89% over the previous year according to <a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44898819" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDC</a>. Furthermore, they predict that spending on enterprise blockchain will reach $$ja12.4 billion by 2022.
In common with Roubini, our belief has long been that blockchain as a technology offers little that was not already available elsewhere and before. Enterprise blockchains bear little resemblance to the technical ingenuity that gave us Bitcoin, but which is otherwise largely useless. The populist mantra that enterprise blockchain has the ability to transform the business processes of major corporations, key industry verticals and governments is a largely a delusion in our opinion. <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/blockchains-occam-problem" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This</a> recent report from McKinsey further supports our perspective, noting that blockchain has yet to become the game-changer some expected and recommending that it should only be considered when it is the simplest solution available.
Paradoxically, if the allure of blockchain can be leveraged as the motivating factor to undertake the much-needed digital transformation and business process re-engineering required to modernize outdated, legacy practices and procedures, then it may indeed have some inherent, albeit unintended, value. Furthermore, our interviews with the CEOs of two small, privately held startups clearly indicated that they are actually finding important, albeit niche, use cases for blockchain technologies in their solution stacks.  In this context, it makes sense to view blockchain as an emerging technology actively seeking real-world use cases and likely to be strongly promoted by its proponents in the coming years.
Against this backdrop, how should investors think about the investment opportunities for blockchain? For starters, venture capital interest grew significantly in 2018 with some $5.4 billion invested in blockchain related startups, up from $1.5 billion the previous year according to <a href="https://next.autonomous.com/thoughts/crypto-blockchain-lands-at-24b-in-2018-funding-1b-in-stos-coming" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Autonomous Research</a>. Nonetheless, our analysis of multiple categories of companies with blockchain exposure reveals a harsh reality. Neither their blockchain related revenues nor any cost savings directly attributable to the technology are significant enough to have any meaningful impact on their valuations from a fundamentals perspective, a situation we do not expect to change any time soon. The same holds true for the blockchain-related ETFs and hedge funds we examined.
On a more positive note, there are some excellent companies doing exciting things with blockchain and related technologies. Privately held GuardTime and Digital Assets should be on investors watch lists for funding rounds and IPOs. We expect publicly listed <a href="https://www.garage.co.jp/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Digital Garage</a> and <a href="https://www.broadridge.com/intl/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Broadridge Financial Solutions</a> to continue to perform well and feel that they should be considered as part of a broader fintech portfolio. By the same token, we are positive on the growth opportunities of blockchain-associated multinationals such as <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-hk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.ibm.com/hk-en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IBM</a>, <a href="https://www.visa.com.hk/en_HK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.mastercard.us/en-us.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mastercard</a> etc, albeit for reasons that have little to do with blockchain.

Since its emergence as the technology underpinning Bitcoin over a decade ago, blockchain has captured the imagination of technologists, investors and charlatans in roughly equal measure. Blockchain has been portrayed by its advocates as the solution to some of the most fundamental challenges facing modern-day society including free and fair elections, the protection of identity records and title deeds, supply chain integrity and, of course, enabling all manner of exotic cryptocurrencies. Little wonder then that we experienced a wave of blockchain mania which coincided with a similar level of cryptocurrency mania in late 2017. During that time, companies were adding "Blockchain" to their names and seeing their share prices soar by many multiples within weeks. Just as the crypto bubble burst in early 2018, so too did the blockchain bubble. Share prices of so-called blockchain companies collapsed just as quickly as they had risen. Testifying before a US senate committee in October 2018, professor of economics Nouriel Roubini was scathing in his criticism of blockchain referring to it as  “The most over-hyped technology ever, no better than a spreadsheet/database”.
 Now, as the dust settles and the mania fades, we witness the emergence of a new class of enterprise-grade blockchain implementations led by the likes Hyperledger, Corda and various customisations of Ethereum. While the blockchain technologies supporting the likes of Bitcoin and Ethereum are public in so far as the data they contain is accessible by anybody who wishes to view it, these enterprise blockchain implementations are private, a necessary prerequisite for their potential deployment at major corporations and financial institutions. This distinction, along with a number of other important differences, means that enterprise blockchain represents a significant departure from the original public blockchain concept.
Today, enterprise blockchain is being deployed to tackle challenges across a swathe of verticals thanks to the likes of the Big Four consulting firms striving to position it at the heart of their business process reengineering practices. From Maersk to Walmart, they are convincing some of the world's biggest conglomerates to tackle age-old issues relating to outdated, inefficient, labor intensive business practices, all in the name of  blockchain.
It's not just the Big Four that are cashing in on enterprise blockchain. Professional services firm Accenture is investing heavily in its blockchain consulting practice. Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) solutions are available from enterprise software giants Intl Business Machines, Oracle,  SAP and Microsoft and more recently from China’s Alibaba and Baidu. Intel wants to ensure that enterprise blockchains runs best on its servers while Microsoft and Amazon want to host them on their clouds. It's little surprise then that enterprise and government spending on blockchain is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2019, an increase of 89% over the previous year according to IDC. Furthermore, they predict that spending on enterprise blockchain will reach $$ja12.4 billion by 2022.
In common with Roubini, our belief has long been that blockchain as a technology offers little that was not already available elsewhere and before. Enterprise blockchains bear little resemblance to the technical ingenuity that gave us Bitcoin, but which is otherwise largely useless. The populist mantra that enterprise blockchain has the ability to transform the business processes of major corporations, key industry verticals and governments is a largely a delusion in our opinion. This recent report from McKinsey further supports our perspective, noting that blockchain has yet to become the game-changer some expected and recommending that it should only be considered when it is the simplest solution available.
Paradoxically, if the allure of blockchain can be leveraged as the motivating factor to undertake the much-needed digital transformation and business process re-engineering required to modernize outdated, legacy practices and procedures, then it may indeed have some inherent, albeit unintended, value. Furthermore, our interviews with the CEOs of two small, privately held startups clearly indicated that they are actually finding important, albeit niche, use cases for blockchain technologies in their solution stacks.  In this context, it makes sense to view blockchain as an emerging technology actively seeking real-world use cases and likely to be strongly promoted by its proponents in the coming years.
Against this backdrop, how should investors think about the investment opportunities for blockchain? For starters, venture capital interest grew significantly in 2018 with some $5.4 billion invested in blockchain related startups, up from $1.5 billion the previous year according to Autonomous Research. Nonetheless, our analysis of multiple categories of companies with blockchain exposure reveals a harsh reality. Neither their blockchain related revenues nor any cost savings directly attributable to the technology are significant enough to have any meaningful impact on their valuations from a fundamentals perspective, a situation we do not expect to change any time soon. The same holds true for the blockchain-related ETFs and hedge funds we examined.
On a more positive note, there are some excellent companies doing exciting things with blockchain and related technologies. Privately held GuardTime and Digital Assets should be on investors watch lists for funding rounds and IPOs. We expect publicly listed Digital Garage and Broadridge Financial Solutions to continue to perform well and feel that they should be considered as part of a broader fintech portfolio. By the same token, we are positive on the growth opportunities of blockchain-associated multinationals such as Microsoft, IBM, Visa, Mastercard etc, albeit for reasons that have little to do with blockchain.
  

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed</li>
<li>This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage</li>
<li>Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins</li>
</ul>


HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed
This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage
Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins


Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Sam Altman - one of OpenAI's founders and its CEO - has been ousted from the firm citing lack of consistent communication with the board. </li>
<li>OpenAI has garnered significant spotlight around Gen AI. Surely it is generating revenues at a rapid clip but far from making profits. What will this leadership transition mean?</li>
<li>Sam’s ousting was totally not expected. On 6th November, OpenAI held its first ever developer conference which was led by him. Earlier this week, he spoke at APEC conference. </li>
</ul>


Sam Altman - one of OpenAI's founders and its CEO - has been ousted from the firm citing lack of consistent communication with the board. 
OpenAI has garnered significant spotlight around Gen AI. Surely it is generating revenues at a rapid clip but far from making profits. What will this leadership transition mean?
Sam’s ousting was totally not expected. On 6th November, OpenAI held its first ever developer conference which was led by him. Earlier this week, he spoke at APEC conference. 


Shake Up at OpenAI: Sam Gone, Mira Is Interim CEO, Greg Not Chairman but Remains as President

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>Amazon’s cloud market share is roughly the sum of Microsoft and Google market share put together.  Microsoft’s market share is twice that of Google.</li>
<li>After stupendous growth over the last five years, cloud business continues to grow but at a slowing pace. Amid tech spend cuts, not every cloud vertical is set to grow.</li>
<li>Those cloud providers enabling AI workloads are primed to soar despite shrinking cloud budgets.</li>
</ul>


Amazon’s cloud market share is roughly the sum of Microsoft and Google market share put together.  Microsoft’s market share is twice that of Google.
After stupendous growth over the last five years, cloud business continues to grow but at a slowing pace. Amid tech spend cuts, not every cloud vertical is set to grow.
Those cloud providers enabling AI workloads are primed to soar despite shrinking cloud budgets.


Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

Michael Causton

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Back when I wrote this, Blockchain was all the rage, but I struggled to see the true value proposition, felt there was a huge amount of hype...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

Shake Up at OpenAI: Sam Gone, Mira Is Interim CEO, Greg Not Chairman but Remains as President

Sam Altman has been removed from his position as CEO of OpenAI due to a lack of consistent communication with the board, raising questions about...

Mint Finance

Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

IMPORTANT NOTE: Data points supporting two charts below are incorrect due to clerical errors. Sorry. Please refer to discussions below for the...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Arcs' Online Expansion with Amazon a Worry for Rakuten and Aeon

​Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

Michael Causton

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Back when I wrote this, Blockchain was all the rage, but I struggled to see the true value proposition, felt there was a huge amount of hype...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

​HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

Shake Up at OpenAI: Sam Gone, Mira Is Interim CEO, Greg Not Chairman but Remains as President

​Sam Altman has been removed from his position as CEO of OpenAI due to a lack of consistent communication with the board, raising questions about...

Mint Finance

Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

IMPORTANT NOTE: Data points supporting two charts below are incorrect due to clerical errors. Sorry. Please refer to discussions below for the...

Mint Finance

Amazon Netsuper is challenging Rakuten's online food platform in a rapidly growing sector (up 80% in 4 years), with Arcs joining its system to...

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Sam Altman has been removed from his position as CEO of OpenAI due to a lack of consistent communication with the board, raising questions about...