APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional Inc (4194 JP)</a> raised US$609m at JPY5,000 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range.
Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. It also offers HRMOS, which is a cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.
We have previously covered the IPO in:
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/visional-inc-ipo-pricey-hire" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50114" rel="noopener">Visional Inc IPO - Pricey Hire</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/visional-inc-ipo-good-vision-muddled-by-dilution-and-selling-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50086" rel="noopener">Visional Inc IPO - Good Vision Muddled by Dilution and Selling Shareholders</a> </li>
</ul>
In this note, I'll look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.

Visional Inc (4194 JP) raised US$609m at JPY5,000 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range.
Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. It also offers HRMOS, which is a cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.
We have previously covered the IPO in:


Visional Inc IPO - Pricey Hire 

Visional Inc IPO - Good Vision Muddled by Dilution and Selling Shareholders 

In this note, I'll look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.

Visional Inc IPO Trading Update - Good Demand, Small Upside Based on SOTP

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional Inc (4194 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$609m in its Japan IPO.Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. It also offers HRMOS, which is a cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.In this note, we share our thoughts on assumptions, valuation, and deal dynamics.

Visional Inc (4194 JP) is looking to raise up to US$609m in its Japan IPO.Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. It also offers HRMOS, which is a cloud-based human capital management (HCM) platform.In this note, we share our thoughts on assumptions, valuation, and deal dynamics.

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We think that investors can often find attractive opportunities among companies serving the HR department;</li>
<li>When it comes to the Japanese market, employment services companies can additionally take advantage of multiple tailwinds in our view;</li>
<li>We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names across various industries within the sector, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended with three of our top picks.</li>
</ul>


We think that investors can often find attractive opportunities among companies serving the HR department;
When it comes to the Japanese market, employment services companies can additionally take advantage of multiple tailwinds in our view;
We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names across various industries within the sector, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended with three of our top picks.


Quick Picks: Top-Quality Employment Services Providers From Japan

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/035/original/2020-03-15_07-07-04.png?1584223644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123035"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-opportunity-knocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37049" rel="noopener">Opportunity Knocks?</a> Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/034/original/2020-03-15_06-53-01.png?1584222882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123034"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/036/original/2020-03-15_07-18-49.png?1584224347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/037/original/2020-03-15_07-23-55.png?1584224666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123037"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Who’s Swimming Naked?</a> cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/039/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2024%2020.jpeg?1584225464" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123039"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/040/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2026%2031.jpeg?1584225508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123040"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/041/original/File%202020-03-15%207%2044%2021.jpeg?1584225894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123041"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]</div>CONTAINING COVID - According to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/038/original/2020-03-15_07-34-05.png?1584225268" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123038"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oann.com</div>KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our Opportunity Knocks? Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.Source • Japan AnalyticsIT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on Who’s Swimming Naked? cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]CONTAINING COVID - According to data from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. Source • oann.comKEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Japan

en-japan inc. provides Internet-based recruiting solutions. The Company provides recruitment information for job seekers. en-japan's web site allows member employers to access its database of job seekers. The Company also provides recruitment consulting services.

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en Japan Inc (4849 JP)

Visional Inc IPO Trading Update - Good Demand, Small Upside Based on SOTP

Visional Inc (4194 JP) raised US$609m at JPY5,000 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range. Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Visional Inc IPO - Pricey Hire

Visional Inc (4194 JP) is looking to raise up to US$609m in its Japan IPO. Visional Inc. is a human resources (HR) technology company based in Japan.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Quick Picks: Top-Quality Employment Services Providers From Japan

We started with our favorable and demanding metric to shortlist 25 names, further examined them in terms of growth and cash generation, and ended...

Steven Chen

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

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