IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cerberus-capital-management-eyes-austal-takeover-has-citi-on-board-20230615-p5dgx2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to AFR</a>. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.</li>
<li>Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. </li>
<li>Andrew Forrest's 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  </li>
</ul>



Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, according to AFR. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.
Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. 
Andrew Forrest's 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  


Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Samsung Heavy Industries Pref / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of delisting of five preferred stocks in Korea at end of June.</li>
<li>These five preferred stocks are as follows: Samsung Heavy Industries Pref, SK Networks Pref, DB Hitek Pref, Hyundai BNG Steel Pref, and Heungkuk Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Pref 2B. </li>
<li>Because the combined market cap of these five preferred shares is 37 billion won, it will have only a minor, positive impact on their common counterparts.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of delisting of five preferred stocks in Korea at end of June.
These five preferred stocks are as follows: Samsung Heavy Industries Pref, SK Networks Pref, DB Hitek Pref, Hyundai BNG Steel Pref, and Heungkuk Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Pref 2B. 
Because the combined market cap of these five preferred shares is 37 billion won, it will have only a minor, positive impact on their common counterparts.


Potential Delisting of 5 Preferred Stocks in Korea at End of June

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Bobcat Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat.</li>
<li>The same shareholders had earlier sold in Nov 22, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/doosan-bobcat-placement-momentum-is-strong-but-past-deals-have-been-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85256" rel="noopener">Doosan Bobcat Placement - Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag</a>. That deal didn’t do well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat.
The same shareholders had earlier sold in Nov 22, see Doosan Bobcat Placement - Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag. That deal didn’t do well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

<ul>
<li>The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> shares will be credited to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a>'s shareholders on 1 March.   </li>
<li>While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. </li>
<li>New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.</li>
</ul>


The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)'s shareholders on 1 March.   
While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.


Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

South Korea

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

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Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS)

Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

AFR reports that JF Lehman & Company, a middle-market private equity firm focused on aerospace, defence and maritime sectors, is preparing to lodge...

Arun George

Potential Delisting of 5 Preferred Stocks in Korea at End of June

In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of delisting of five preferred stocks in Korea at end of June including Samsung Heavy...

Douglas Kim

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat. This is a clean-up trade.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

AFR reports that JF Lehman & Company, a middle-market private equity firm focused on aerospace, defence and maritime sectors, is preparing to lodge...

Arun George

Potential Delisting of 5 Preferred Stocks in Korea at End of June

In this insight, we discuss the increasing likelihood of delisting of five preferred stocks in Korea at end of June including Samsung Heavy...

Douglas Kim

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Doosan Bobcat Placement - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well, This Time Could Be Different

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$138m by selling all of their remaining stake in Doosan Bobcat. This is a clean-up trade.

Sumeet Singh

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

In the short term, Keppel's distribution in-specie of new SMM shares creates an overhang. Longer-term new SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion...

Arun George