Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Capital Markets

The company's underwriters have announced a price range of HK$18.60 - HK$20.60 which implies a market cap of US$2.7-3.0 billion. We recommend passing on the deal at these levels despite the high-quality business and management team.  The valuation argument lies with the underwriters' forecasts which assume continued rapid growth in 2017-2021 and acceleration in the latter years of this period. As we have seen with other listings of high-quality companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> the listing price isn't necessarily the best price.

The company's underwriters have announced a price range of HK$18.60 - HK$20.60 which implies a market cap of US$2.7-3.0 billion. We recommend passing on the deal at these levels despite the high-quality business and management team.  The valuation argument lies with the underwriters' forecasts which assume continued rapid growth in 2017-2021 and acceleration in the latter years of this period. As we have seen with other listings of high-quality companies such as 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) the listing price isn't necessarily the best price. 

Viet Capital Securities Joint Stock Company

Luan Nguyen

Independent Insight Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

This is the part II of collaboration on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/950" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:950">Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/960" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:960">Luan Nguyen</a><h2>DCF analysis</h2>We have performed a DCF valuation and given the revenue drivers and R&amp;D pipeline provided by Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA in part 1, we think the upside potential of this company is 40% from current level. The assumptions that result in an upside of 40% are:- 73% growth in 2016, 26% growth in 2017, 15.3% growth in 2018, then 10% p.a. from 2019 to 2025 and 3% p.a. until…

This is the part II of collaboration on 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) between Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA and Luan NguyenDCF analysisWe have performed a DCF valuation and given the revenue drivers and R&amp;D pipeline provided by Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA in part 1, we think the upside potential of this company is 40% from current level. The assumptions that result in an upside of 40% are:- 73% growth in 2016, 26% growth in 2017, 15.3% growth in 2018, then 10% p.a. from 2019 to 2025 and 3% p.a. until…

3SBio: A Leading, Pure-Play Chinese (HK-Listed) Biotechnology Company (Part II)

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1">3SBio shares are trading below 52-week high of HKD 11.48 and appear to have 30-40% upside. </a>3SBio is one of the leading biotechnology companies in China. The company has several future revenue drivers like TPIAO and Yisaipu. Shares have been in an uptrend since the regulatory concerns on the global biotechnology sector have eased after Republican victory in the recent U.S. elections. A short-term pullback last week is another excellent opportunity for a long-entry. We plan to start a long position in the stock.

3SBio shares are trading below 52-week high of HKD 11.48 and appear to have 30-40% upside. 3SBio is one of the leading biotechnology companies in China. The company has several future revenue drivers like TPIAO and Yisaipu. Shares have been in an uptrend since the regulatory concerns on the global biotechnology sector have eased after Republican victory in the recent U.S. elections. A short-term pullback last week is another excellent opportunity for a long-entry. We plan to start a long position in the stock.

3SBio: A Leading, Pure-Play Chinese (HK-Listed) Biotechnology Company (Part I)

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. </li><li>For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.</li><li>Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. </li></ul>

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. 

China

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

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3SBio Inc (1530 HK)

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

WuXi Biologics: Pass on This Valuation

The company's underwriters have announced a price range of HK$18.60 - HK$20.60 which implies a market cap of US$2.7-3.0 billion. We recommend...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

3SBio: A Leading, Pure-Play Chinese (HK-Listed) Biotechnology Company (Part II)

This is the part II of collaboration on 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) between Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA and Luan NguyenDCF analysisWe have performed a...

Luan Nguyen

3SBio: A Leading, Pure-Play Chinese (HK-Listed) Biotechnology Company (Part I)

3SBio shares are trading below 52-week high of HKD 11.48 and appear to have 30-40% upside. 3SBio is one of the leading biotechnology companies in...

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Key Drivers of Asia's Healthcare Sector

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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