Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche.&nbsp; In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe shows why.&nbsp;&nbsp;Land accounts for one-third of Australia's national assets and that higher land values - not dwellings - have driven residential property markets higher in recent decades.</li><li>Booming land values reflect favourable demand side influences, including strong growth in population and household incomes, while zoning restrictions have meant that the supply response to higher prices has been muted.&nbsp; With slower expected future income growth and increased concerns about future housing costs, the response to higher housing prices looks to be smaller than it was previously.</li><li>Nonetheless, Mr Lowe acknowledges that that a reduction in the household savings ratio is &lsquo;probably appropriate&rsquo; as the economy re-balances from a terms of trade and mining investment booms.&nbsp; Against this backdrop, I re-iterate my positive view on discretionary retailers.&nbsp; Key stocks to buy: HVN, JBH, DSH, GWA, MYR and PMV.</li></ul>

Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche.&nbsp; In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe shows why.&nbsp;&nbsp;Land accounts for one-third of Australia's national assets and that higher land values - not dwellings - have driven residential property markets higher in recent decades.Booming land values reflect favourable demand side influences, including strong growth in population and household incomes, while zoning restrictions have meant that the supply response to higher prices has been muted.&nbsp; With slower expected future income growth and increased concerns about future housing costs, the response to higher housing prices looks to be smaller than it was previously.Nonetheless, Mr Lowe acknowledges that that a reduction in the household savings ratio is &lsquo;probably appropriate&rsquo; as the economy re-balances from a terms of trade and mining investment booms.&nbsp; Against this backdrop, I re-iterate my positive view on discretionary retailers.&nbsp; Key stocks to buy: HVN, JBH, DSH, GWA, MYR and PMV.

Australia's land obsession - Reiterate postive view on discretionary retailers

Macroeconomics

<p>In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.</p>

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

Australia

Shine Corporate Ltd. is a national law firm. The Firm's areas of practice includes personal injuries law, family law, property law, class actions, wills, probate and residential conveyancing.

Slater & Gordon Limited is a national law firm. The Firm's areas of practice include commercial, family, employment, asbestos-related and personal injury law.

NextEd Group Limited provides educational solutions. The Company delivers industry relevant courses and programs, as well as offers work placement and internship. NextEd Group serves students worldwide.

Top Education Group Ltd, doing business as Top Education Institute, offers educational services. The Company provides graduates and undergraduate degree program in the field of business, legal, and technology. Top Education Institute serves clients in Australia.

Academies Australasia Group Limited grants baccalaureate and graduate degrees. The College offers degrees in accounting, language, information technology, management, marketing, tourism, and sports and fitness. Academies Australasia Group serves students in Australia and Singapore.

Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited is a franchiser of education centers that provide tutoring services to children ages 6-16.  The centers aid children in a variety of subject matters including mathematics, reading, spelling and English.

Ainsworth Game Technology Limited designs, develops and manufactures gaming machines and games combination software and other related equipment for the gaming industry in Australia. Products include the Ambassador video gaming machines, video games and Embassy Jackpot systems.

Site Group International Ltd. provides Australian accredited vocational education to Asian markets. The Company also services global employment needs by placing qualified graduates in high demand employment areas. Site Group has operations in both Australia and the Philippines.

Retail Food Group Ltd is a retail food brand manager and franchiser. The Company currently manages donut stores and cafes.

Helloworld Travel Limited operates as a travel company. The Company provides corporate travel management services to corporate and government customers including booking flights, cruises, and accommodation. Helloworld Travel serves customers worldwide.

STUDIO ALICE Co., Ltd. operates photo studio chain stores for children throughout Japan.  The Company provides a variety of costumes at its studios. STUDIO ALICE mainly operates direct-run stores.

STEP CO., LTD. operates preparatory schools for elementary, junior, and high school students mainly in Shonan, Kanagawa Prefecture.  The Company also prepares, prints, and publishes text books and educational materials.

Japan Best Rescue System Co., Ltd. provides solution services for troubles in daily life.  Its services include repair for locks, glass, and plumbing systems. The Company offers a membership to customers and provides services through a network of franchisees and co-operate shops.

WASEDA ACADEMY CO., LTD. manages a preparatory school for elementary and junior high school students.

China YuHua Education operates private education from kindergarten to university in China.

Hope Education Group Co, Ltd. offers educational services. The Company provides educational training, knowledge point sharing, activities arrangement, and other services. Hope Education Group offers its services throughout China.

Siam Wellness Group Public Company Limited owns and operates spa and wellness centers. The Company also provides management and consulting services.

GAKKYUSHA CO., LTD. operates the cram school mainly in the Tokyo metropolitan area, majority of students belonging to elementary and junior-high level.  The Company also operates schools in US, UK, and Germany, targeting children of Japanese nationals living abroad.

IBJ Inc provides marriage matchmaking services. The Company offers marriage consulting services through the Internet. IBJ also offers and consults business events and seminars.

TSUKADA GLOBAL HOLDINGS Inc. provides a variety of wedding services. The Company arranges ceremonies with overseas chapels and churches as well as with domestic ones.

3P Learning Limited provides educational services. The Company owns and operates a website for students, teachers, and mathematics coordinators with a focus on e-learning of mathematics. 3P Learning serves the kindergarten through twelfth grade curriculum worldwide.

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3P Learning (3PL AU)

Australia's land obsession - Reiterate postive view on discretionary retailers

Australians' long held fascination with land is part of the national psyche. In a speech delivered overnight, RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe...

Sam Ferraro

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

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