Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Henderson Land Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.</li>
<li>One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years <em>may</em> get their extra stamp duty refunded - if they take up permanent residency.</li>
<li>Secondary home prices have declined  8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.  </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.
One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years may get their extra stamp duty refunded - if they take up permanent residency.
Secondary home prices have declined  8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.  


Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait ...

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Henderson Land Development / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Henderson Land is one of the largest RE developers in Hong Kong, with investment properties portfolio in Central, as well as HK DP, China DP and IP.</li>
<li>Major share price drivers include (1) farmland conversion in Hong Kong (2) US rate hike as it has the second highest gearing among HK real estate companies</li>
<li>However, we see limited catalysts and therefore limited re-rating potential, thus bearish on the stock.</li>
</ul>


Henderson Land is one of the largest RE developers in Hong Kong, with investment properties portfolio in Central, as well as HK DP, China DP and IP.
Major share price drivers include (1) farmland conversion in Hong Kong (2) US rate hike as it has the second highest gearing among HK real estate companies
However, we see limited catalysts and therefore limited re-rating potential, thus bearish on the stock.


Henderson Land 12 HK – a Play on Farmland Conversion and Leveraged Developer - Bearish

<ul>
<li>Last month, a Cheng family vehicle with 24.06% of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a></strong>, requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus three other NEDs/INEDs.</li>
<li>That SGM will be held on the 3rd April. The director resolutions - both the removal and appointments - are "ordinary", requiring a simple majority vote. </li>
<li>The outcome will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, with some surprising results.  </li>
</ul>


Last month, a Cheng family vehicle with 24.06% of Giordano (709 HK), requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus three other NEDs/INEDs.
That SGM will be held on the 3rd April. The director resolutions - both the removal and appointments - are "ordinary", requiring a simple majority vote. 
The outcome will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, with some surprising results.  


Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. </li>
<li>That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."</li>
<li>This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.</li>
</ul>


RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. 
That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."
This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.


Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The steady selloff in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> owns 82% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.</li>
</ul>


The steady selloff in Swire Properties (1972 HK) could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in the next couple of months.

Swire Properties (1972 HK) trades marginally cheaper than its similar sized peers on forward PE and price to book value.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) owns 82% of Swire Properties (1972 HK) and a big drop in the stock price could see them step in.


Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

Hong Kong

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

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Henderson Land Development (12 HK)

Stamp Duty Relief For Hong Kong Foreigners. But Wait ...

Lifting the stamp duty may firm home prices but certainly won't propel price growth. The impact on sales of mass residential projects will be...

David Blennerhassett

Henderson Land 12 HK – a Play on Farmland Conversion and Leveraged Developer - Bearish

In this insight we conducted fundamental analysis on Henderson Land. The major share price drivers are (1) farmland conversion (2) its relatively...

Jacob Cheng

Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM

Spilling the board will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

HK Finance Secretary has introduced the 2024-2025 Budget. All "spicy measures" (property cooling measures) are now lifted. This should push the...

Travis Lundy

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Potential Passive Selling & Trade Ideas

The sustained stock price drop could see Swire Properties deleted from global indexes with trackers needing to sell a lot of stock. Positioning has...

Brian Freitas

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