HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At 5.4% for FY24-26F, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-china-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:375:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK)</a> has the second-highest dividend yield among its HK utility peers. A lower US rate makes it attractive.</li>
<li>An unchanged interim DPS of HK$0.12 despite a decline in reported net profit suggests the resilience of its dividend stream. Core operating profit has increased 2%.</li>
<li>While gearing has gone up, HKCG still has excellent cash-generating ability (FY23: HK$10.9bn). It has also cut back in capex with a 33% YoY drop for 1H24. </li>
</ul>


At 5.4% for FY24-26F, Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK) has the second-highest dividend yield among its HK utility peers. A lower US rate makes it attractive.
An unchanged interim DPS of HK$0.12 despite a decline in reported net profit suggests the resilience of its dividend stream. Core operating profit has increased 2%.
While gearing has gone up, HKCG still has excellent cash-generating ability (FY23: HK$10.9bn). It has also cut back in capex with a 33% YoY drop for 1H24. 


HK & China Gas (3 HK): A Yield Play Back in Favour

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong utilities have performed well on an absolute basis and even better on a relative basis this year.</li>
<li>We revisit our original call on them from  January 2024</li>
<li>Continued market volatility and future US  interest rate cuts will provide continued support.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong utilities have performed well on an absolute basis and even better on a relative basis this year.
We revisit our original call on them from  January 2024
Continued market volatility and future US  interest rate cuts will provide continued support.


Revisiting Hong Kong Utilities-Time to Sell?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.</li>
<li>Among the underperforming HSI constituents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> are the better candidates to pick up performance. </li>
<li>For HSCEI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.</li>
</ul>


With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.
Among the underperforming HSI constituents, China Resources Power (836 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK) are the better candidates to pick up performance. 
For HSCEI, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.


<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The energy, materials and tech sectors have lost momentum, while telecoms and utilities sectors lead the market.  Consumer sectors are lagging.  HSCI has dipped below its 200 day moving average.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-china-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:375:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK)</a> breaks to the upside as investors seek safety and yield.  
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> has broken down relative to the MSCI China index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> breaks down from a triangle formation  but downside is limited.
</li>
</ul>


The energy, materials and tech sectors have lost momentum, while telecoms and utilities sectors lead the market.  Consumer sectors are lagging.  HSCI has dipped below its 200 day moving average.

Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK) breaks to the upside as investors seek safety and yield.  


PetroChina (857 HK) has broken down relative to the MSCI China index and Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) breaks down from a triangle formation  but downside is limited.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 31)

Hong Kong

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited produces, distributes, and markets gas and gas appliances to residential and industrial customers through its brands.The Company's subsidiaries develops gas projects in China and manages commercial properties.

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Hong Kong & China Gas (3 HK)

HK & China Gas (3 HK): A Yield Play Back in Favour

HKCG offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.4% for FY24-26F, backed by its strong cash generation and reduced capex. Lower US interest rates...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Revisiting Hong Kong Utilities-Time to Sell?

Hong Kong utilities have outperformed this year, with future US interest rate cuts expected to provide further support. Revisiting our original...

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

US interest rate decline benefits HSI companies with high gearing levels, like New World Development and Hang Lung Properties, while Sands China's...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 31)

Utilities and telecom sectors have gained favor in HK as investors seek low volatility and dividend yield. Hong Kong China Gas has formed a...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK & China Gas (3 HK): A Yield Play Back in Favour

HKCG offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.4% for FY24-26F, backed by its strong cash generation and reduced capex. Lower US interest rates...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Revisiting Hong Kong Utilities-Time to Sell?

​Hong Kong utilities have outperformed this year, with future US interest rate cuts expected to provide further support. Revisiting our original...

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

​Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

​US interest rate decline benefits HSI companies with high gearing levels, like New World Development and Hang Lung Properties, while Sands China's...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 31)

Utilities and telecom sectors have gained favor in HK as investors seek low volatility and dividend yield. Hong Kong China Gas has formed a...

David Mudd

Hong Kong utilities have outperformed this year, with future US interest rate cuts expected to provide further support. Revisiting our original...

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

US interest rate decline benefits HSI companies with high gearing levels, like New World Development and Hang Lung Properties, while Sands China's...