Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Coal India advancing 119 projects to increase coal production, aiming for 1 billion tonnes by 2025-26.</li>
<li>Adani's $4 billion PVC project resumes, targeting India's PVC demand with 2 million tonnes capacity.</li>
<li>ITC plans Rs 20,000 crore investment, focusing on FMCG, paperboards, packaging, and hotel business demerger.</li>
</ul>


Coal India advancing 119 projects to increase coal production, aiming for 1 billion tonnes by 2025-26.
Adani's $4 billion PVC project resumes, targeting India's PVC demand with 2 million tonnes capacity.
ITC plans Rs 20,000 crore investment, focusing on FMCG, paperboards, packaging, and hotel business demerger.


# 36 India Insight: Coal India Projects, Adani $4 Bn in PVC, ITC INR 20,000 Cr Investment

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We hold a neutral view toward Thai pet food stocks. While the sector has solid fundamentals, the growth trend appears to be diminishing compared to the past.</li><li>We initiate coverage of i-Tail Corporation (ITC) with an Outperform rating and a target price (TP) of Bt23.90, and Asian Alliance International (AAI) with a Neutral rating and a TP of Bt5.50.</li><li>We estimate a 52% YoY increase in the 2024E earnings for ITC and a 113% YoY jump for AAI, driven by a recovery in export markets. </li></ul>

We hold a neutral view toward Thai pet food stocks. While the sector has solid fundamentals, the growth trend appears to be diminishing compared to the past.We initiate coverage of i-Tail Corporation (ITC) with an Outperform rating and a target price (TP) of Bt23.90, and Asian Alliance International (AAI) with a Neutral rating and a TP of Bt5.50.We estimate a 52% YoY increase in the 2024E earnings for ITC and a 113% YoY jump for AAI, driven by a recovery in export markets. 

Industry Update: Pet Food - Solid Fundamentals but Growth Projected to Be Slower (JULY 25, 2024)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Our esteemed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2024-25 today, marking the seventh consecutive budget under her leadership.</li><li>The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasizing infrastructure enhancement, fiscal prudence, and welfare schemes for rural India.</li><li>The focus is on inclusive growth, highlighting four major pillars: Youth, Women, the Poor, and Farmers. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our esteemed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2024-25 today, marking the seventh consecutive budget under her leadership.The Finance Minister has set the stage for "Viksit Bharat" through the comprehensive development of the Indian economy, emphasizing infrastructure enhancement, fiscal prudence, and welfare schemes for rural India.The focus is on inclusive growth, highlighting four major pillars: Youth, Women, the Poor, and Farmers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

# 36 India Insight: Coal India Projects, Adani $4 Bn in PVC, ITC INR 20,000 Cr Investment

India's major companies are ramping up production and investments in coal, PVC, and various sectors to meet growing demand and expansion goals.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Industry Update: Pet Food - Solid Fundamentals but Growth Projected to Be Slower (JULY 25, 2024)

We hold a neutral view toward Thai pet food stocks. While the sector has solid fundamentals, the growth trend appears to be diminishing compared to...

Krungthai XSpring

Post Budget Analysis and Stock Ideas

Our esteemed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2024-25 today, marking the seventh consecutive budget under her...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

# 36 India Insight: Coal India Projects, Adani $4 Bn in PVC, ITC INR 20,000 Cr Investment

​India's major companies are ramping up production and investments in coal, PVC, and various sectors to meet growing demand and expansion goals.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Industry Update: Pet Food - Solid Fundamentals but Growth Projected to Be Slower (JULY 25, 2024)

We hold a neutral view toward Thai pet food stocks. While the sector has solid fundamentals, the growth trend appears to be diminishing compared to...

Krungthai XSpring

Post Budget Analysis and Stock Ideas

Our esteemed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2024-25 today, marking the seventh consecutive budget under her...

Axis Direct

India's major companies are ramping up production and investments in coal, PVC, and various sectors to meet growing demand and expansion goals.