Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-go-big-or-go-home" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44964" rel="noopener">NTT - Go Big Or Go Home</a> five weeks ago, I suggested that investors really needed to look at the internal arithmetic of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> buyout of subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a>, which was subsequently completed, and will see the squeezeout take place early. The occasion for that insight was the announcement of a large buyback program by NTT. There had been a fear that the buy-in of Docomo was a "sign" that NTT was being pressured to fund lower Docomo pricing at the expense of NTT shareholder returns. NTT, however, made VERY clear that the company would look to continue its shareholder return policy AND pay down the ¥4+ trillion debt to be incurred buying out the Docomo minorities. The first buyback report came at the beginning of December and the data is interesting. Since I wrote that NTT shares are up 13.4% while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> is down slightly and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is up about 8% (though 6% of that has happened in the last few days as news of a "slow-burn" minority buy-in pushes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> shares.It is worth re-iterating the dynamics here and thinking about the timing of buyback pressure, the timing of comp buyback pressure, and when investors will see newsflow on fundamentals.

In NTT - Go Big Or Go Home five weeks ago, I suggested that investors really needed to look at the internal arithmetic of the NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) buyout of subsidiary NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP), which was subsequently completed, and will see the squeezeout take place early. The occasion for that insight was the announcement of a large buyback program by NTT. There had been a fear that the buy-in of Docomo was a "sign" that NTT was being pressured to fund lower Docomo pricing at the expense of NTT shareholder returns. NTT, however, made VERY clear that the company would look to continue its shareholder return policy AND pay down the ¥4+ trillion debt to be incurred buying out the Docomo minorities. The first buyback report came at the beginning of December and the data is interesting. Since I wrote that NTT shares are up 13.4% while KDDI Corp (9433 JP) is down slightly and Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is up about 8% (though 6% of that has happened in the last few days as news of a "slow-burn" minority buy-in pushes Softbank Group (9984 JP) shares.It is worth re-iterating the dynamics here and thinking about the timing of buyback pressure, the timing of comp buyback pressure, and when investors will see newsflow on fundamentals.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank Group shares jumped 5% on news the company is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which apparently consists of ongoing buybacks until CEO Son’s current holdings are enough to squeeze out minorities. At the current share price, which would likely be impossible to maintain absent a market selloff, Softbank could just barely get that done with cash from recent asset sales but there would be no money left over for further investments. We think this is unlikely but a steady buyback policy would be great news in itself.

Softbank Group shares jumped 5% on news the company is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which apparently consists of ongoing buybacks until CEO Son’s current holdings are enough to squeeze out minorities. At the current share price, which would likely be impossible to maintain absent a market selloff, Softbank could just barely get that done with cash from recent asset sales but there would be no money left over for further investments. We think this is unlikely but a steady buyback policy would be great news in itself.

Softbank Group - Slow Burn Buyout Unlikely but Helps with the Discount so that Is Good

Softbank Group is trading near recent highs boosted by ¥308bn in share buybacks over the last two months and enthusiasm on ride hailing/food delivery as two Vision Fund investments Uber and DoorDash are on track to deliver $8-9bn in gains this quarter.  Reports that the company will phase out derivative trading in the US did not appear to move sentiment.

Softbank Group is trading near recent highs boosted by ¥308bn in share buybacks over the last two months and enthusiasm on ride hailing/food delivery as two Vision Fund investments Uber and DoorDash are on track to deliver $8-9bn in gains this quarter.  Reports that the company will phase out derivative trading in the US did not appear to move sentiment.

Softbank Group: Buybacks, Optimism on Food Delivery Help Narrow Discount to 41%

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

NTT - Still Going Big, Not Going Home

NTT is under-appreciated - March 2022 forecasts still do not include accretion of the NTT Docomo minority into EPS. The company has responded to...

Travis Lundy

Softbank Group - Slow Burn Buyout Unlikely but Helps with the Discount so that Is Good

Softbank shares jumped 5% on news it is mulling a “slow burn” buyout which consists of ongoing buybacks without a formal offer. This seems unlikely...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group: Buybacks, Optimism on Food Delivery Help Narrow Discount to 41%

Softbank Group is trading near recent highs boosted by share buybacks and enthusiasm on ride hailing/food delivery as Vision Fund investments are...

Kirk Boodry

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