Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/​Astra

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Softbank Group's (SBG) tender offer and consent solicitation are a surprise move. In our view, it is not a prudent use of capital to buy back debt at such low yields and high prices. With regard to the proposed indenture amendments, we believe that it is sensible for SBG to replace the leverage test as the group is now an investment holdco, for which LTV is the best leverage metric. However, this also means that SBG would be able to make large restricted payments. We recommend that Noteholders tender their bonds, given that: [1] there is limited upside as the Notes are yielding very low (c. 1-2%); [2] there is the possibility of a better than market price; [3] they can receive consent fees and exit; and [4] the credit profile may deteriorate due to possible large restricted payments.

  Softbank Group's (SBG) tender offer and consent solicitation are a surprise move. In our view, it is not a prudent use of capital to buy back debt at such low yields and high prices. With regard to the proposed indenture amendments, we believe that it is sensible for SBG to replace the leverage test as the group is now an investment holdco, for which LTV is the best leverage metric. However, this also means that SBG would be able to make large restricted payments.   We recommend that Noteholders tender their bonds, given that: [1] there is limited upside as the Notes are yielding very low (c. 1-2%); [2] there is the possibility of a better than market price; [3] they can receive consent fees and exit; and [4] the credit profile may deteriorate due to possible large restricted payments. 

Softbank Group - Event Flash - Tender Offer And Consent Solicitation - Lucror Analytics

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/Astra

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV starting with Arm

Mio Kato

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/​Astra

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group - Event Flash - Tender Offer And Consent Solicitation - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group's (SBG) tender offer and consent solicitation are a surprise move. In our view, it is not a prudent use of capital to buy back...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV starting with Arm

Mio Kato

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

Last Week in Event SPACE: Beijing Jingneng, Maeda Road, Justbon, Tencent, Intouch, JCCC/Astra