Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NAV/Share is the lowest since July 2020 largely driven by declines in Alibaba shares (-8% this week and -61% from all-time highs)</li>
<li>A US de-listing for Didi is not necessarily good news for Softbank as the value of that stake will be determined by pricing for a HK listing</li>
<li>The NAV discount has returned to 48% as a less aggressive buyback program does little to drive the share price (not necessarily bad over the long run)</li>
</ul>


NAV/Share is the lowest since July 2020 largely driven by declines in Alibaba shares (-8% this week and -61% from all-time highs)
A US de-listing for Didi is not necessarily good news for Softbank as the value of that stake will be determined by pricing for a HK listing
The NAV discount has returned to 48% as a less aggressive buyback program does little to drive the share price (not necessarily bad over the long run)


Softbank Group - A Very Bad Week as China Drives NAV Weakness and Discount Round Trip

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/seazen' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='/entities/honghua-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Honghua Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Vedanta ResourcesSeazen (Formerly Future Land)Honghua GroupChina Jinmao HoldingsLifestyle International Holdingsand more...

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The US FTC has sued Nvidia to block its attempted acquisition of Arm in yet another negative for beleaguered Softbank. </li>
<li>We have said from the start that we did not expect the deal to go through and that we didn’t even think Nvidia expected it to. </li>
<li>With Nvidia stock at heady levels scrapping the deal would mean material downside for Arm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>


The US FTC has sued Nvidia to block its attempted acquisition of Arm in yet another negative for beleaguered Softbank. 
We have said from the start that we did not expect the deal to go through and that we didn’t even think Nvidia expected it to. 
With Nvidia stock at heady levels scrapping the deal would mean material downside for Arm’s valuation.


<ul>
<li>Early last year as COVID was breaking and the BOJ doubled its ETF purchases shifting to TOPIX ETFs from Nikkei ETFs we brought up this trade. </li>
<li>With a long weekend adding to the mix conditions were abnormal but our suggested trades generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. </li>
<li>This trade is starting to look interesting to us again though returns are likely to be less explosive but more persistent this time.</li>
</ul>


Early last year as COVID was breaking and the BOJ doubled its ETF purchases shifting to TOPIX ETFs from Nikkei ETFs we brought up this trade. 
With a long weekend adding to the mix conditions were abnormal but our suggested trades generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. 
This trade is starting to look interesting to us again though returns are likely to be less explosive but more persistent this time.


In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border restrictions on the industry, and our forecast for the coming years. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border restrictions on the industry, and our forecast for the coming years. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank Group - A Very Bad Week as China Drives NAV Weakness and Discount Round Trip

Softbank's value is still tied to Alibaba and other China investments even with a robust buyback. NAV is the lowest since July 2020 and the...

Kirk Boodry

Weekly Wrap - 03 Dec 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank – FTC Dis-Arms Nvidia

The US FTC has sued Nvidia to block its attempted acquisition of Arm in yet another negative for beleaguered Softbank opening up material downside...

Mio Kato

Revisiting the Topix-Nikkei Skew Trade

Early last year we suggested trading this skew which would have generated 10-12% pure alpha within four trading days. This trade is starting to...

Mio Kato

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we provide an update on the gaming industry in Macau. We discuss the impact of pandemic-related border...

Lucror Analytics

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