Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’s been something of a reversal of fortunes in online shopping malls, as Yahoo Shopping regains some of the losses of the past 18 months while Rakuten suffers a setback.</li>
<li>Much of Yahoo Shopping's bounce back has come on the back of marketing through loyalty point programmes.</li>
<li>Both companies expect further gains going forward from more cross-use and expansion of categories, including a new tie-up between Rakuten and Nihon L’Oreal.</li>
</ul>


There’s been something of a reversal of fortunes in online shopping malls, as Yahoo Shopping regains some of the losses of the past 18 months while Rakuten suffers a setback.
Much of Yahoo Shopping's bounce back has come on the back of marketing through loyalty point programmes.
Both companies expect further gains going forward from more cross-use and expansion of categories, including a new tie-up between Rakuten and Nihon L’Oreal.


Yahoo Shopping up and Rakuten Ichiba Down

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.</li>
<li>Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday
Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.
Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.</li>
<li>The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.</li>
<li>We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.</li>
</ul>


The Sanrio (8136 JP) placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.
The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.
We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.


Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

GMR Hyderabad International Airport / Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group</li>
<li>In the US, the ISM services index fell to 52.1 (55.7 e / 56.0 p). This was the slowest pace in three months, albeit the gauge remained in expansion territory for the ninth month this year. Meanwhile, the November (final) S&amp;P services PMI rose to 56.0 (55.0 p), albeit below the preliminary estimate of 57.0.</li>
<li>The composite PMI climbed to 54.9 (54.1 p). Separately, the ADP employment survey showed that private sector job growth slowed to 146 k (150 k e / 184 k revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group
In the US, the ISM services index fell to 52.1 (55.7 e / 56.0 p). This was the slowest pace in three months, albeit the gauge remained in expansion territory for the ninth month this year. Meanwhile, the November (final) S&amp;P services PMI rose to 56.0 (55.0 p), albeit below the preliminary estimate of 57.0.
The composite PMI climbed to 54.9 (54.1 p). Separately, the ADP employment survey showed that private sector job growth slowed to 146 k (150 k e / 184 k revised p).


Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Yahoo Shopping up and Rakuten Ichiba Down

Yahoo Shopping sees a resurgence with loyalty point programs, while Rakuten faces setbacks. Both companies anticipate growth through cross-use and...

Michael Causton

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

The Sanrio placement could be priced today. The stock has moved as expected so far - sharp drop, rally, profit taking. The stock remains within...

Brian Freitas

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yahoo Shopping up and Rakuten Ichiba Down

​Yahoo Shopping sees a resurgence with loyalty point programs, while Rakuten faces setbacks. Both companies anticipate growth through cross-use and...

Michael Causton

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

​Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

The Sanrio placement could be priced today. The stock has moved as expected so far - sharp drop, rally, profit taking. The stock remains within...

Brian Freitas

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, Rakuten Group

Lucror Analytics

Yahoo Shopping sees a resurgence with loyalty point programs, while Rakuten faces setbacks. Both companies anticipate growth through cross-use and...

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...