Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR and KSP Kokusai will offer 52.51m-60.38m shares (US$1.76bn-2bn) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 22 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> will also buy back up to JPY 18bn of its shares. At the last close, that is 3.33m shares (1.2x ADV).</li>
<li>Trackers of one global index will buy stock at the time of settlement of the shares. The (much) bigger buying will come at the end of August.</li>
</ul>


KKR and KSP Kokusai will offer 52.51m-60.38m shares (US$1.76bn-2bn) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that will likely be priced on 22 July.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will also buy back up to JPY 18bn of its shares. At the last close, that is 3.33m shares (1.2x ADV).
Trackers of one global index will buy stock at the time of settlement of the shares. The (much) bigger buying will come at the end of August.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


KKR raised around US$730m via selling some stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Japan IPO in Sep 2023. Its remaining stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a>’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).</li>
<li>The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan's corporate governance reforms.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).</li>
</ul>



Honda Motor (7267 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).
The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan's corporate governance reforms.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).


Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>I kind of hate this, but I also can't ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.</li>
<li>Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was "speculation on a tender offer.... according to traders". The stock is untraded, limit up.  </li>
<li>The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal '<em>kabutan</em>' which suggests "overseas media" thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.</li>
</ul>


I kind of hate this, but I also can't ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.
Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was "speculation on a tender offer.... according to traders". The stock is untraded, limit up.  
The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal 'kabutan' which suggests "overseas media" thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.


T-Gaia (3738 JP) - Possible Premium Takeout Story

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement, Buyback & Index Flows

The Kokusai Electric placement will be a max of US$2bn. There is a buyback that will mop up some stock. There will be some passive buying late July...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric IPO Lock-Up - KKR Will Be Tempted by the US$2.7bn Release but Might Have to Wait

As per media reports, KKR is considering sell half its stake in Kokusai, with the company planning to buyback some shares as well. The company has...

Sumeet Singh

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and...

Arun George

T-Gaia (3738 JP) - Possible Premium Takeout Story

T-Gaia has settled higher and is now trading down at month-end. A split price takeover would result in a minority price well higher than here. A...

Travis Lundy

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