Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.</li>
<li>Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tsuruha-3391-and-welcia-3141-aeon-tsuruha-stake-buy-followed-by-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last piece</a>.</li>
<li>There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. </li>
</ul>


The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.
Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the last piece.
There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. 


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY1,700 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$256 million. The shares will start trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:130521" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-valuation-thoughts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:132126" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts</a>. </li>
<li>The peers have modestly re-rated since the prospectus was released on February 19. The IPO price remains attractive. </li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) priced its IPO at JPY1,700 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$256 million. The shares will start trading on 21 March.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case and Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts. 
The peers have modestly re-rated since the prospectus was released on February 19. The IPO price remains attractive. 


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. </li>
<li>By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.</li>
<li>As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.


E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:130521" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.


David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 21 March. The peers have modestly re-rated since the prospectus was released on February 19. The IPO price remains...

Arun George

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 21 March. The peers have modestly re-rated since the prospectus was released on February 19. The IPO price remains...

Arun George

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

​E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...