Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 100 Yen shop model looked in danger when inflation began to bite and labour costs surged but the sector continues to expand</li>
<li>Their fixed price model meant there was little leeway to offset higher costs through higher prices but a survey shows 90% of respondents visited a Daiso store recently.</li>
<li>While Daiso has adapted quickly and looks to have a bright future, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)</a> refuses to adapt and has seen profits plummet.</li>
</ul>


The 100 Yen shop model looked in danger when inflation began to bite and labour costs surged but the sector continues to expand
Their fixed price model meant there was little leeway to offset higher costs through higher prices but a survey shows 90% of respondents visited a Daiso store recently.
While Daiso has adapted quickly and looks to have a bright future, Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP) refuses to adapt and has seen profits plummet.


100 Yen Shops to Hit ¥1 Trillion This Year but Seria's Model Squeezing Profits

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. </li>
<li>Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>. It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. </li>
<li>There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> in the event that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a>’s results collapse further.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s ¥300bn buyback means 8+% of ADV every day from here to end-Dec 2023. Buy MitCorp vs trading houses with less of a buyback impact. 
Rumours abound of an MSCI up weight for Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). It wasn't a clear-cut situation. And nothing came of it. 
There are concerns about the stability of funding for JIP’s offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) in the event that Kioxia (6600 JP)’s results collapse further.


Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. </li>
<li>This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.</li>
<li>The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.</li>
</ul>


With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing. 
This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.


Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

<ul>
<li>Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.</li>
<li>Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.</li>
<li>Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.</li>
</ul>


Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.


Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP)  is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison against some of its listed peers.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Japan

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

100 Yen Shops to Hit ¥1 Trillion This Year but Seria's Model Squeezing Profits

Seria has always extracted the highest profits from the 100 Yen sector even as its larger competitor, Daiso, grew faster. Now, with labour and...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: MitCorp, Jardine Matheson, Toshiba, Japanese Foreign Inflows

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan's Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption

With Trial's IPO looming and inflation at record highs, Japan's supermarket sector is a sector ripe for disruption as pricing pressures widen the...

Michael Causton

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

Japan's supermarkets are facing unprecedented challenges from new competition in e-commerce but especially drugstores. We highlight the winners in...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Leading in Growth, Lagging in Margins

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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