Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) just bought Hattha Kaksekar Ltd (HKL), a large micro-finance lender in Cambodia. Even if this investment is small compared with overall assets, what matters are the incredibly high returns and how this can have an impact on BAY at the consolidated level.  At the same time, BAY is one of those banks that is more focused on consumer than corporate, which has been and will continue to be a relative positive.We look to reported financial statements of Microfinance Institution…

Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) just bought Hattha Kaksekar Ltd (HKL), a large micro-finance lender in Cambodia. Even if this investment is small compared with overall assets, what matters are the incredibly high returns and how this can have an impact on BAY at the consolidated level.  At the same time, BAY is one of those banks that is more focused on consumer than corporate, which has been and will continue to be a relative positive.We look to reported financial statements of Microfinance Institution…

BAY's Purchase Provides a ~5% ROA with High Growth in Cambodia

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Deciphering real estate markets globally., Rems Advisors

TAN Kok Keong

Deciphering real estate markets globally.

Rems Advisors

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign investments.  This issue runs deep whether you are in developed countries like United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore or emerging markets like Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.The huge disparity in prices of luxury homes vs what middle to lower income groups can afford has been largely caused by the relative strong purchasing powers of foreign participants in…

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign investments.  This issue runs deep whether you are in developed countries like United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore or emerging markets like Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.The huge disparity in prices of luxury homes vs what middle to lower income groups can afford has been largely caused by the relative strong purchasing powers of foreign participants in…

While fintech is old news in the West, it is starting to gain attention and momentum in Thailand, as StatsAsia projects that the value of Thai fintech sector will grow 20% CAGR, mainly led by mobile payment. A closer look seems to show that mixed models (bricks-and-clicks) similar to Charles Schwab works better than a pure model, a la E*Trade in America.As ambitious fintech platforms go after the Big Boys of Sathorn, we think their only path to survival is collaboration. Amongst the incumbents, we like KBANK best on this theme. KBANK has itself hedged. While still making money on conventional banking, they are also going all in with fintech, even appointing the younger and more tech-savvy co-president (Teeranun Srihong) for the task. Looks like they are trying to go for another, "Heads We Win, Tails We Win...a Little Less" strategy that we mentioned earlier in our Thaicom review.

While fintech is old news in the West, it is starting to gain attention and momentum in Thailand, as StatsAsia projects that the value of Thai fintech sector will grow 20% CAGR, mainly led by mobile payment. A closer look seems to show that mixed models (bricks-and-clicks) similar to Charles Schwab works better than a pure model, a la E*Trade in America.As ambitious fintech platforms go after the Big Boys of Sathorn, we think their only path to survival is collaboration. Amongst the incumbents, we like KBANK best on this theme. KBANK has itself hedged. While still making money on conventional banking, they are also going all in with fintech, even appointing the younger and more tech-savvy co-president (Teeranun Srihong) for the task. Looks like they are trying to go for another, "Heads We Win, Tails We Win...a Little Less" strategy that we mentioned earlier in our Thaicom review.

Silicon September 2.0: Fintech Revolution...Incumbents Vs Insurgents

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.</li></ul><ul><li>
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…</li></ul>

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)

BAY's Purchase Provides a ~5% ROA with High Growth in Cambodia

Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) just bought Hattha Kaksekar Ltd (HKL), a large micro-finance lender in Cambodia. Even if this investment is small compared...

Daniel Tabbush

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Helping People Own a Home

A key issue facing many Government across the globe is how to keep home affordable while maintaining an environment attractive for foreign...

TAN Kok Keong

Silicon September 2.0: Fintech Revolution...Incumbents Vs Insurgents

While fintech is old news in the West, it is starting to gain attention and momentum in Thailand, as StatsAsia projects that the value of Thai...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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