Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India. Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious.   When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India.   Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. &nbsp;We saw the complaints feed through yesterday as COSCO (1919 HK) and CSCL tanked. What follows are a couple of accounts and complaints on the redesign of the listed vehicles.

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. &nbsp;We saw the complaints feed through yesterday as COSCO (1919 HK) and CSCL tanked. What follows are a couple of accounts and complaints on the redesign of the listed vehicles.

China Shipping Container Lines ... RIP; and Other Reports on the COSCO Mess

China

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

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COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to...

Charles De Trenck

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s...

Charles De Trenck

"Shipping Has to Become BORING Again"

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to...

Charles De Trenck

China Shipping Container Lines ... RIP; and Other Reports on the COSCO Mess

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. We saw the...

Charles De Trenck

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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