Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY</li>
<li>Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.</li>
<li>The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. </li>
</ul>


LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. 


LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period</li>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ</li>
<li>China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. </li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. </li>
<li>Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales have increased MoM  for seven months in a row. PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments have bottomed and are on the rise. Memory has bottomed.
Silicon wafer inventories are piled high, ASML, TEL facing down zero growth in 2024, foundry utilisations are (mostly) in the doldrums with further ASP cuts looming on the horizon. 
Multiple data points suggest we'll still be talking about this downturn well into 2024


Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

LRCX Q423 revenue $3.76 billion, +8% QoQ, -29% YoY. Q124 revenues guide $3.7 billion, flat QoQ.Memory IS recovery, but only for HBM & node...

William Keating

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Global semi sales for October 23 of $46.6 billion, +3.9% MoM, -0.7% YoY. Q323 semi WFE billings $25.6 billion, -11% YoY, -1% QoQ. China set to...

William Keating

Semiconductors. The Downturn Is Over. Or Is It?

Despite the positives that PC and Smartphone markets are in recovery mode, semi sales growing MoM etc, multiple data points suggest we'll still be...

William Keating

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